The Revolutionary Guard's naval forces have proven their ability to carry out the kind of attack we witnessed on an Israeli-owned cargo ship sailing in the Gulf of Oman, Friday, in the past. That's why we can assume it was also responsible for this latest attack. While the attackers could have easily sunk the ship, it seems they acted to cause damage to the vessel without incurring any casualties. In 2019, Iran accused Israel, the United States, and Saudi Arabia of sabotaging an oil tanker in the Red Sea.
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The attack didn't take Israeli officials by surprise. The ayatollah regime has suffered painful blows both across the Middle East and inside Iran in recent years and has been seeking revenge for quite some time. The attack on the Israeli-owned ship allows it to maintain a low profile without provoking too strong of a response. Although the Iranians opted for a civilian and not military target, it is doubtful Israel will act to change the status quo.
Israel now has an opportunity to leverage the event in the diplomatic arena, in particular with US President Joe Biden's administration, which is now busy formulating its policy on Iran. Following an initial month that saw the White House display alarming weakness in the face of Iran, it seems it is now ready to deal with reality; We saw the first signs of this on Thursday night when the Americans targeted Iranian targets on Syrian soil in response to an attack by pro-Iranian militias on American targets in Baghdad.
Israel's interest is first and foremost the Iranian nuclear program and a possible US return to the 2015 nuclear deal. To that end, in a meeting last week, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and numerous other officials decided to work to convince the US administration to act toward an improved version of the deal that keeps Iran far from obtaining nuclear power and the country's breakout time as far off as possible.
Israel is also interested in restricting Iran's activities in the region. This kind of attack on a civilian target could aid the effort to blacken Iran's reputation and present its negative influence on the region.
The name of the game in this effort is intelligence. Just like with the nuclear program, Israel needs to get to Washington, and other relevant capitals around the world, to present officials with facts and testimonies. There is an abundance of such material on Iran's nuclear program, violations, and deception, and one can assume on the attack in the Gulf of Oman, Thursday, as well.
It's unlikely this diplomatic-intelligence process will thwart Iranian aggression. Ever since the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, Iran has carried out quite a few violent activities, including against Western maritime targets. Israel must now ensure this is an isolated event and not the start of a broader campaign. At any rate, it must increase surveillance, monitoring, and security of Israeli and Israeli-owned vessels.
Israel has plenty of ways to respond to the attack. According to foreign reports, Jerusalem responded to an Iranian cyberattack on its water supply last year with a cyberattack on the port of Bander Abbas. Now, Israel will need to decide whether it wants to retaliate for this latest attack, and if so, how it plans to go about it. The attack appears to have provided Israel with a significant political opportunity. At any rate, the Iranian front has been consistently managed across a variety of sites and various means. Despite this most recent event, Israel is by far in the lead.
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