Israeli officials are trying to understand whether the harsh treatment of the Israeli couple arrested in Istanbul last Thursday is a local matter or a directive from high up. The answer to this question will, to a great extent, determine how the affair continues to be handled, and its odds of coming to a timely conclusion.
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Israel's initial assessment was that the couple was arrested due to local authorities trying to "make a splash," and that the matter would be resolved quickly. However, the Turkish court's decision not to expel Mordy and Natalie Oknin and rather extend their remand in custody by 20 days, led Israeli officials to believe that certain elements in Turkey want to exploit the affair to create an intentional diplomatic crisis with Israel – among other reasons, due to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his government's dwindling popularity amid the country's faltering economy.
In the meantime, Israel wants to handle the affair behind closed doors. This is also why Prime Minister Naftali Bennett instructed ministers on Sunday not to discuss the matter publicly. The idea is that any Israeli declarations will lead to Turkish responses, which will impede efforts to reach an agreement, or worse – spur Turkey to harden its stance and make demands that Israel won't be able to meet.
At this stage, Israel wants to keep handling the matter discreetly. These efforts have already included President Isaac Herzog, the Mossad and the Foreign Ministry. Israel doesn't have a permanent ambassador in Ankara (nor does Turkey in Israel), but the existing communication mechanisms, assuming good faith, are conducive to the affair being resolved without escalating.
Israel, however, needs to prepare for the possibility that Turkey will choose the crisis course. As stated, this option could serve Erdogan domestically, but beyond that, the Turks could demand a king's ransom in return: from Temple Mount status and various matters pertaining to Gaza, to issues relating to natural gas and Israel's strategic alliance with Greece and Cyprus. It will be the Oknins who pay the price for these issues.
As things currently stand, Israel will have to consider changing its approach to Turkey. The first step will have to be to issue an official travel warning.
The immediate consequence of such a move will be to hamper Israeli tourism to Turkey. In a period of struggling global tourism due to the global coronavirus pandemic, a measure of this sort will hit Turkey in its pocket. Israel can also warn Israelis not to fly through Istanbul, one of Turkish Airlines' busiest gateways to the rest of the world. Such a move would also have economic ramifications for Turkish airlines in general, which view Israel as a strategic market.
Officials in Jerusalem want to avoid such drastic steps. Relations with Turkey have been strained for many years now, but thus far the sides have made sure to separate their diplomatic disputes from their economic relations.
But even if the affair reaches a swift and successful conclusion, Israel should hold a deep strategic debate with itself to determine its future policy regarding Turkey. Even before that, however, it must demand that Ankara guarantee the safety and security of Israelis who visit Turkey. Until then, all Israelis should do the obvious: stay away from trouble, and because Turkey has so much of it these days – just stay away from Turkey.
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