The last time a deal between Israel and Lebanon signed any sort of deal – including indirectly – was many years ago. The newly announced arrangement that theoretically formalizes the maritime border between the two countries removes the threat of war that could have erupted once the extraction begins at the Karish gas field and reduces the overall tension with Hezbollah. The Biden administration can also claim that it managed to bolster Prime Minister Yair Lapid's standing. Israel may also get some modest revenue from the future development of the potential gas reservoirs north of the newly agreed border.
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The problem is that Israel has had to pay a premium for this discount. The entire area that had been in dispute will now be under Lebanese control – to the very last square inch. All regional actors will now study this precedent carefully – including Hamas – which eyes the potential gas development off the Gaza Strip.
In previous rounds of negotiations over the past 10 years, Israel was willing to give Lebanon 60% of the disputed area, and the former US mediators have recently confirmed this. No one could imagine that once the Lapid government is sworn in, this position would be abandoned.
In return for this massive concession, Israel got Lebanon (and by extension Hezbollah) to respect the de facto maritime border between the countries. While substantial, this accomplishment has limited value since it only refers to the line as the "status quo" boundary rather than a UN-recognized border.
Thus, Lebanon has an opening to make further claims to amend the border, should it choose to reopen this issue. The agreement stipulates that Lebanon will have "no further claims", all but ignoring the fact that the very dispute that had been supposedly resolved in this deal was the product of Lebanon's shifting demands over the years. In other words, consistency and trustworthiness is not Lebanon's strong suit.
To ensure Lebanon does not renege on its promises, Lapid presented a letter of guarantees issued by the US. That could in theory be a great insurance policy, but practically speaking, what will the US do if Hezbollah decides to breach that deal? Will it fight the organization on Israel's behalf? Of course not. The "letter of guarantees" is just a public relations stunt that will expire once the Americans decide it should.
The US officials who briefed the Israeli media on Tuesday did not mention this letter. They did stress that Hezbollah was not a party to the agreement, and noted that Lebanon needed the deal in order to get the much-needed energy to help the poor Lebanese. This is what preoccupies the Biden administration.
Having realized that there were not a lot of accomplishments he can point to in the deal , Lapid has tried to mislead the public by claiming that "Israel got 100% of Karish." But just as the US official said, Karish was never part of the disputed area. Even the claim that the deal would free Lebanon of its dependence on Iran is just false because it will take years before the gas in the Qana Prospect can be tapped, and in the meantime Beirut will be tethered to Iran.
The bottom line is somewhat depressing: Under US pressure, and in order to buy some industrial peace from Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, Israel agreed to give away everything. That cannot be called a historic deal.
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