It is hard not to notice the concern in the defense establishment over the Sunday's terrorist attack or, more precisely over whether it heralds a new wave of terror.
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The initial investigation has concluded that while the terrorist, Fadi Abu Shahidam, was a Hamas sympathizer, he acted alone. Investigators are currently focusing on whether he had accomplices, training, funding, or instruction to carry out the attack, and where he got his weapon.
The latter – a standard firearm – is not used by the IDF and was most likely smuggled and sold by criminal or terrorist elements.
Abu Shahidam does not fit the classic profile of a terrorist and unlike other lone-wolf terrorists, the married 42-year-old father had ideological motives. His social media accounts suggest as much and this will require the Israel Security Agency to explore whether he could have been stopped prior to committing the attack.
In recent years the Shin Bet and the IDF have been able to stop hundreds of would-be Palestinian terrorists based on the combination of advanced technology and quality intelligence.
The deadly attack in Jerusalem was carried out after a long period in which the security forces managed to thwart dozens of terrorist attacks in the city. Jerusalem was and remains the main target of terrorist attacks, especially the Old City, which has a relatively large concentration of targets – from police officers to Jewish civilians.
Since Operation Guardian of the Walls, police presence in the Old City area has increased. This allowed a relatively quick response to Sunday's attack – the terrorist was down within 32 seconds of opening fire.
Police efficiency undoubtedly prevented a larger attack, but it failed to completely prevent the killing spree. The high accessibility of terrorists to weapons, the ease with which West Bank residents are allowed to enter Israel, and the high friction between Jews and Palestinians in the Old City create a significant challenge for security forces operating in Jerusalem.
This challenge is expected to increase in the foreseeable future; primarily because successful terrorist attacks inspire copycats, but for other reasons as well.
First there is Hamas' increased effort to direct attacks from the Gaza Strip, through the West Bank, into Israeli territory. A Gaza cell of this kind was apprehended last month in Samaria before carrying out a series of bombing and abduction attacks.
This effort continues, forcing security forces to up their counterterrorism efforts: in an average week, the IDF carries out 80-120 arrests in the West Bank, based on Shin Bet intelligence.
The second reason is the lack of governance in the West Bank, as reflected in growing anarchy in some areas.
Although the Palestinian Authority has launched an operation to regain control of northern Samaria, it is facing a growing challenge from various elements, from terrorist organizations to criminal gangs. Some of these players also encourage terrorist attacks, with the aim of further undermining the PA's status.
The third reason is the economic hardship among Palestinians in the West Bank and in east Jerusalem, which is driving many to commit terrorist attacks.
The fourth reason is, as always, Jerusalem; its standing and its inherent volatility, even more so given the moribund Israeli-Palestinian peace process and Hamas' efforts to gain more influence in the city.
At present, the defense establishment does not plan to increase reinforcements in Judea and Samaria, perhaps with the exception of specific changes to deployment in Jerusalem.
The IDF operates in the West Bank using relatively small forces and focuses on counterterrorism operations. However, if it becomes clear in the coming days that this is a new wave of terrorist attacks, the IDF will be required to send additional forces to generate deterrence.
At the same time, the IDF will be required to drive the message home vis-à-vis Hamas in Gaza. The terrorist organization is playing games with Israel: In Gaza, Hamas wants to maintain peace as well as dialogue with Israel to form a ceasefire, but at the same time it is trying to escalate tensions in the West Bank.
This situation has existed for many years, but Israel cannot continue to tolerate it. The time has come to make Hamas choose between calm or war, on all fronts.
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