From an Israeli perspective, a visit by an American president is always a significant event. The leader of the world's top superpower – Israel's closest and most important friend – is coming to Israel and this is an opportunity to focus the conversation on the strategic issues most critical to our security.
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However, one would be wise to remember that the Middle East and Israel are not at the top of the US administration's priorities at this time. The war in Ukraine, the trade war with China, the looming recession, and the mid-term elections in November – are just some of the issues troubling US President Joe Biden and his staff.
Still, after some expectation management, there are four issues on which progress would be considered an achievement for Israel, albeit they are not necessarily the same issues Biden will want to promote while he tours the region.
The first issue is the need to reach an understanding of the red lines with respect to the Iranian nuclear program. For example, deciding that uranium enrichment to a level of 90% requires action.
Next comes the need to set policy for a combined campaign to curb the Iranian nuclear program, to delay Tehran's dash toward the status of a nuclear threshold state.
The third issue highlights bolstering the normalization bloc by strengthening the common security interests vis-à-vis Iran. This does not necessarily entail the formation of a defense alliance but it does require setting in place a practical system that addresses the threat posed by Iranian drones and missiles.
The fourth issue Israel should press is bolstering US commitment to Israel's security by expanding the terms of the 10-year memorandum of understanding inked in 2018, including updating Israel's relative qualitative military edge as a core principle with respect to weapon sales.
During the regional visit, however, Biden is likely to pursue different issues.
First, there is the issue of increasing Saudi Arabia's oil exports in order to reduce world oil prices. To achieve this key task President Biden is apparently willing to set aside the administration's unofficial boycott on Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, imposed over his alleged involvement in the 2018 assassination of dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
The potential is great, but the impact on oil prices will be slow to take effect. It should also be noted that this move contradicts the idea of switching to renewable energy, and contradicts the Biden administration's commitment to the issue of human rights.
The second issue is bolstering regional defenses. To justify the visit as one focused on security and the Iranian challenge, Biden needs to present a practical achievement on this front. This is a sensitive issue, one best discussed behind closed doors, and the less said about it publicly the better.
Another issue touches on underscoring affinity with and commitment to Israelis and Israel. Biden is a true lover of Israel. Throughout his extensive diplomatic career, from his first visit to Israel as a young senator who met with then-Prime Minister Golda Meir to the present day. This emotional commitment will be reflected in the relationship that he will surely form with Prime Minister Yair Lapid, as well.
The last issue is stressing the administration's commitment to the two-state solution during the president's visit to Ramallah. Given the increasing assumption that this solution is no longer feasible, Biden will seek to demonstrate the US's direct commitment to this process during the visit. In fact, Biden is likely to express his commitment to the two-state solution even if he understands it is not a practical one.
There is no doubt that the most pressing threat that Israeli decision-makers will emphasize is the continued expansion of the Iranian nuclear program. Without a new concept on the matter, Israel may find itself in the future in a situation where it needs to operate under conditions and timing beyond its control. Since the severe attribution scenario includes a regional escalation, Israel would need American backing for any such move.
We can act alone. But we need to recognize the limits of power, as demonstrated by the war in Ukraine. If Hezbollah were to join this war, the IDF will have to act very aggressively vis-à-vis Lebanon, and since such action is ostensibly unrelated to the Iranian nuclear threat, it could be challenging in terms of international legitimacy.
As for the Palestinian issue – the importance of which is one of the objectives for Biden's visit: the American president's visit comes at a sensitive time – the twilight of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas' time in power. This period requires a different approach. A statement of support for a two-state solution is trivial and will do little to stabilize the Palestinian arena. Moreover, the Palestinian people are likely to be derisive and indifferent to such a statement.
Practically speaking, it is best to focus on the impending changing of the guard and how the normalization camp can impact a calm transition of power from Abbas to his successor, in a way that will naturally connect the Palestinian Authority to this bloc.
True, Biden has no choice – just as he conveys a message of solidarity with Israel, he conveys a message of sympathy for the Palestinian aspirations. But we must also remember that there are days in which wasting time on respect is a privilege we cannot afford. Perhaps this is the time to take the initiative.
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