An Iranian nuclear deal wasn't the only matter on the agenda at the Negev Summit. Alongside the concerns over the ramifications of such a deal, the participants also examined the idea of eradicating Iran's presence and influence in Syria and Lebanon by legitimizing the outcast known as Bashar Assad.
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Although this is not a new idea, it is now being pressed forward by UAE Crown Prince Muhammad bin-Zayad, with the passive agreement of Israel and the remaining summit participants. In November of last year, bin-Zayad dispatched his foreign minister to Damascus, and last month welcomed Assad to the UAE. It was the Syrian president's first visit to an Arab country since he began spilling the blood of his own people exactly 11 years ago, after which he was banished from the Arab League.
It's not a coincidence that the UAE is taking the lead on this initiative. The attacks by Houthi rebels in Yemen have buried its attempts at reconciliation with Tehran, and have reminded the Gulf States that the main threat they face, Iran, will only become more acute once the nuclear deal is signed.
Ergo the deal now being pushed by the UAE: Arab states will work to re-legitimize the Syrian tyrant on the world stage, and in return Assad will order the expulsion of all "foreign forces" from Syria and Damascus will reinstate full sovereignty over the entire country. In other words, Iranian militias and Turkish forces would have to leave.
Behind closed doors, bi-Zayad has presented the logic behind the initiative. First, although Assad is a cruel and merciless dictator, he still remains the only leadership option in Syria, and all the alternatives are worse than him. Second, although Assad survived thanks to Hezbollah, Iran, and the Russian military, he isn't "in love" with the Iranian presence and would be happy to get rid of it. And third, Assad understands that Iran lacks the vast resources needed for rebuilding Syria, while the Gulf States can actually help.
Not just Oman and the UAE, but Egypt, Jordan, and other Arab states, along with Israel, also support the proposal to legitimize the Syrian dictator. The problem is it's not a practical idea, at least at this point in time.
Although Assad survived the war, large swathes of Syria aren't under his control. He owes his survival to the Russians and Iranians, and the latter have already deeply embedded themselves within the Syrian army. Assad doesn't have the power to expel the Iranians and Hezbollah, which controls the border region between Syria and Lebanon, just as he's powerless to tell the Turks to leave northern Syria prior to an arrangement that would keep Kurdish rebels away from the Turkish border. The US adamantly opposes any development that would keep Assad in power, and the odds of any coordination between Washington and Moscow on the matter of expelling the Iranians from Syria while the war in Ukraine is still raging – are slim to none.
Under these circumstances, there's little reason to hope that bringing Assad back into the Arab fold would be enough, in and of itself, to fundamentally alter the picture inside Syria. Israel will have to continue fighting to counter-balance the negative effects of a nuclear deal, without relaxing its efforts to reduce, in any way possible – diplomatically and militarily – Iran's influence in Syria and Lebanon.
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