Instead of the 400 confirmed coronavirus cases we were hoping for when school started a week ago, this past week the number of confirmed new carriers crossed 3,000 – twice the average we were seeing a month ago.
This rise comes along with an increased percentage of positive test results, which indicate an outbreak alongside existing cases. This is attributable in part to the wedding season and in part to the start of the school year, which began at the beginning of the Hebrew month of Elul in Haredi communities.
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Despite most of the new cases being identified in young people who are at little risk of developing serious complications, we are also seeing more hospitalizations nationwide, and more patients listed in serious and moderate condition. We at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem assess that at the rate at which these last two numbers are rising, we will see 20 to 40 deaths per day two weeks from now.
The increase in the number of hospitalized coronavirus patients has other major ramifications. Because hospitals' resources are limited, a jump in coronavirus cases means that resources are diverted from other units for COVID care.
Internal medicine departments and intensive care units are closing to allow new COVID units to open. Aside from the extra burden of treating the coronavirus patients themselves, this means that treatment of other conditions could be seriously affected.
Therefore, action must be taken urgently to reduce the spread of the virus. Last week, we were sent spinning between different threats that changed frequently. This led to confusion, lack of trust, and the sense that the nation's battle against coronavirus is not being waged according to public health or expert considerations alone.
The decision to instate overnight curfews in cities and towns coded "red" is too little, too late. Apart from the weddings that will be cancelled, it's hard to see this having any broad impact (even assuming the curfew is enforced), since most of us general have less social interaction at night and move around less.
We need to prepare a clear and orderly emergency plan for steps to be taken to reduce the spread of the virus alongside while also establishing a system of support for people forced to stay at home and those whose income is adversely affected.
Even now, we are starting to see increased numbers of quarantined citizens after the start of the school year, and this might be the moment to weigh closing middle schools and high schools – certainly in communities with mid-to-high infection rates. Otherwise, mass quarantines will just lead to another economic blow to the economy and parents will be forced to lose work days.
Until the government comes to its senses and arrives at a plan it can stick to, any business than is able to should encourage employees to work from home.
Indeed, we all have to demonstrate responsibility for ourselves and solidarity with the society in which we live, and consider how we can protect the people around us by upholding social distancing and wearing masks. We cannot depend on the sense that the virus is limited to certain sectors or age groups. We are all part of the same society, and the virus does not distinguish between different people. We cannot seal ourselves off hermetically, so we can only win the battle if we all enlist.
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