Mideast political quiz for 5787

1. Which of the following security-diplomatic developments can be expected in the coming year?

 

1. A security accord between Israel and Syria, and a rapprochement between Israel and Turkey.
2. Expansion of Abraham Accord partnerships to Oman, Indonesia, Djibouti, Comoros, Mauritania, and even Saudi Arabia.
3. A series of Iranian-inspired terrorist attacks on Israeli and Jewish targets around the world, including attempts to assassinate Israel's prime minister.
4. Extension of Israeli sovereignty to Area C (which includes all Israeli cities and towns in Judea and Samaria plus the Jordan Valley and the greater Jerusalem envelope including Maale Adumim and Gush Etzion).
5. Under world pressure, Israel will delay declaration of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, even though every Israeli government over the coming 100 years will reject Palestinian statehood, and Israeli towns and cities ("settlements") in the biblical heartland will continue to prosper.

 

2. Where is the Palestinian-Israeli conflict headed?

 

1. The "democratic and peaceful" State of Palestine will cease to "pay-for-slay" (support for terrorists and their families), dismiss soldiers and policemen who have aided or participated in terror attacks on Israelis, criminalize and prosecute religious leaders and broadcasters who rail about Jews as subhuman forces of evil, introduce peace education in PA schools, and embrace water, sewage, industrial and other cooperative projects with Israel.
2. Mahmoud Abbas will die, be overthrown, or shunted aside by Jibril Rajoub, Mohammed Dahlan, or Marwan Barghouti – all of whom will claim to be non-partisan but will front a Hamas conquest of the Palestinian Authority. The IDF will have to retake Areas A and B in Judea and Samaria to repel an assault from Western-trained PA troops turning their rifles against the IDF.
3. The IDF will again drive deep into Gaza to end Hamas rule. One million Gazans will flee into Sinai and from there to refuge around the world, despite Egypt's protestations.

 

3. If on one day, 5,000 rockets were to be fired into populated areas of Paris, London, Ottawa, and Canberra and 1,200 citizens of these countries were slaughtered or raped and kidnapped, and the enemy was continuing to rearm and prepare for a next assault – what would be the "proportionate response" of Emmanuel Macron, Andy Burnham, Mark Carney, and Anthony Albanese?

 

1. They would vote for a UN Security Council resolution calling on "all sides" to exercise "restraint," then convene an international conference to accord "state" status on the attacking terrorist enemy.
2. They would seek to invest billions in the attacker's economy to improve quality of life and squelch the urge of the attackers to further hit France, Britain, Canada, and Australia. They also would cheerfully and generously pay-out billions of dollars in "humanitarian aid" to feed the population that elected the terrorist attackers, without serious supervision of how the funds are used (meaning, diverted for military rearming).
3. They would shore-up a fictitious and revanchist "State of Palestine" and triple their funding of UNRWA, while tightening arms embargos and sanctions on Israel and accusing it of ethnic cleansing and genocide – all the while claiming to be pro-Israel.
4. They would erase the leadership of the attacking party from the face of the earth. And then carpet-bomb the attacking zone to kingdom come, as the Allies did in WWII.

 

4. After the midterm US elections in November, President Trump will take which of the following steps?

 

1. Leave foreign policy matters to Vice President JD Vance, while focusing himself on vainglorious projects like the White House ballroom, a triumphal arch on Columbia Island in Washington, and the renaming of various oceans and even the moon after himself.
2. Pressure Israel to withdraw from the security zones it has established over its unstable borders with Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.
3. Declare his recognition of a new "technocratic" government in Gaza that is "neither Fatah or Hamas," and insist that Israel allow thousands of foreign troops into Gaza to oversee the "peace" and to manage reconstruction and rehabilitation – even as Hamas quietly retains much of its weaponry and control.
4. Cut a soft (sellout) deal with Iran to "share" the Arabian Gulf shipping lanes and then withdraw most US troops from the Mideast.
5. Launch the "knockout punch of the century" on Iran's surging nuclear sites like Pickaxe Mountain and on nodes of regime power, and drive revolution within Iran both by covert action and a round of Israeli-style targeted assassinations of IRGC leaders.

 

5. The result of next month's Israeli election will be:

 

1. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will lose badly to Lt. Gen. (res.) Gadi Eisenkot and bow out of Israeli politics – with perhaps a pardon from President Yitzhak Herzog.
2. Netanyahu's camp will surprise with a come-from-behind victory based on the ballots of Israel's youngest voters (ages 18-22) who fought in the frontlines of the recent wars and are staunchly nationalist in orientation. But the political Left and its ideologically aligned Supreme Court will contest the validity of the election result, with months of resulting political paralysis and renewed "Kaplan" camp demonstrations in the streets.
3. Netanyahu and Eisenkot will end up in a draw and form a Likud-Yashar unity coalition with rotation in the prime minister post after two years. Netanyahu will rule the roost first (overlapping Trump's remaining two years in office). A national commission of investigation into the October 7 disaster will be formed, and a law to slowly but determinedly draft the haredi public into military/national service will be passed.
4. Deadlock will prevent the establishment of any new government, and Israel will be thrown into a repeat election campaign while Netanyahu's current government remains in place as the caretaker.
5. Who says that there actually will be an October election? A large-scale emergency security situation (like renewed war with Iran) will force postponement of the vote.

 

6. Among the pleasant surprises of the October election will be:

 

1. Entry into Knesset of a fresh crop of brave and ideologically motivated leaders, breathing hope and inspiration into Israeli politics; the heroic mid-level commanders of the current war, and the equally heroic civil society leaders of today. This, through Ofer Winter's "Amcha Yisrael" and other parties.
2. A collapse in support for the existing Haredi parties and a surge in support for the new "HaTzibur haCharedi" (Haredi Community) party, which advocates integration of the Ultra-Orthodox into the worlds of higher education, the modern workforce, and appropriately adapted tracks in national/military service, while ensuring that the community remains strong and "protected" in its religious commitments. This will also bring female haredim into the Knesset for the first time.
3. Dissipation of support for extremist parties on either end of the political spectrum (such as Yair Golan's "The Democrats" and Itamar Ben-Gvir's "Jewish Power").
4. All the above, hopefully.

 

7. If Gadi Eisenkot becomes prime minister of Israel, he would adopt which of the following policies?

 

1. Unilaterally withdraw Israeli settlers (ranches, outposts, and more) from significant sections of Judea and Samaria.
2. Strengthen Israeli settlement in critical parts of Judea and Samaria including strategic hills in Areas A and B, and continue to develop the E-1 quadrant on the eastern edge of Jerusalem.
3. Insist, like Netanyahu, on holding Israel's new security zones in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria, and maintain Israel's aggressive military approach of interdicting emerging threats without flinching.
4. Withdraw relatively quickly from these security zones under world pressure, and back away from further confrontation with Hamas and Hezbollah.
5. Prepare the IDF for escalated confrontation with hostile armies and terrorist groups in the West Bank, ensuring that Israel not be caught off-guard again by an October 7-scale surprise assault.
6. Seek new ways of "strengthening" Mahmoud Abbas, also to assume responsibility for Gaza and bring stability, good governance, and goodwill to the entire area.
7. Prepare the IDF and IAF for renewed confrontation with Iran.
8. Temper Israel's demand for total dismantlement of Iran's nuclear and missile arrays, and instead partner with the E-3 and IAEA to reach accommodation with Iran.
9. Who the hell knows? Eisenkot has studiously avoided taking a position of any of the key strategic and diplomatic issues at hand. Instead, all we are told is that he is "Yashar" (honest).

 

8. The most important prayer that Israelis can offer this Rosh Hashana is:

 

1. A prayer for national calm and moderate conversation even amidst a hotly contested election campaign, like this text (attributed to Rabbi Nachman of Breslov): "May it be your will, O Lord, that there be great affection and peace among all your people of Israel; that we should all be guided by brotherly love and compassion; that we should accept one another and learn from one another; that we should appreciate all your living beings; and that the misfortune of one person should touch the hearts of all."
2. A prayer for victories, like this text (Psalm 94): "Oh Lord God to whom vengeance belongs, shine forth! … The Lord is my defense, and my God the rock of my refuge. He brings (upon the enemy) their own iniquity, and He cuts them off in their own wickedness."
3. A prayer for national restoration, like this text from daily prayers (attributed to the kabbalist Rabbi Isaiah Halevi Horowitz, known as the "Holy Shlah"): "Our King and God, protect me from evil urges and make me modest and humble. Proclaim Your name in this world, build Your city (Jerusalem), re-establish Your home and temple, gather back to Israel Your exiled people, redeem Your flock, and gladden Your community."
4. All the above.

 

MY ANSWERS: 1e. 2a I wish. 3 They already did a, b, and c. 4b and c; we can dream of e. 5c. 6d. 7i. 8d.