Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hoped that his trip to the US would keep his domestic troubles at bay for a couple of days. Just as in the good old days, this provides him with a golden opportunity to spout in his polished English about those topics that are his clear forte – Iran's nuclear program and its terrorist activity, the ongoing efforts to attain normalization with Saudi Arabia, the Palestinians, the rising tension along Israel's northern border, together with a long string of diplomatic, economic and technological issues – anything but the judicial reform and the surrounding legislation.
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But Netanyahu scored a spectacular own goal when, on board the plane at Ben-Gurion International Airport, he compared his opponents with supporters of Iran and the PLO. Just for the moment, let's put aside the alarming comparison with the Nazis and their collaborators, and the insult to millions of loyal Israelis who genuinely fear for the future of their state, and let us wonder: why did the prime minister opt to put aside all those material issues that are of such importance to him, in the wake of his statement, which only serves to increase concerns over the future of the Israeli democracy?
Sparking further protests in the US
By choosing to dedicate his address in this manner, Netanyahu has only intensified the protest he can expect to face wherever he goes now. In his meetings too, he will encounter harsh criticism, or at the very least, concerned questions. He will discover that his favorite venue, indeed his favorite city, has become hostile toward him and that he too – the omnipotent magician – has now lost his powers, he is exposed and vulnerable, and worst of all – that the State of Israel, in the name of which he has come over, is far from being the supreme, best-selling brand that it has always been.
In the not-too-distant past, such a visit of an Israeli prime minister would have provided a good reason for genuine festivities. No matter who was the leader of the Jewish state, Israel's prime minister was always considered to be a superstar in the US, a welcome guest in Washington, and a leader who belonged to the premier league of world leaders. The current situation; however, is a far cry from those days: US President Joe Biden refused to invite Netanyahu to the White House, deciding to make do with a side-bar meeting on the fringes of the UN General Assembly; numerous leaders suddenly 'came across difficulties' in scheduling time to meet with him; others added stipulations that he would have to come to them for a meeting; even senior Jewish leaders made it clear that they would attend out of respect for the State, but would say in no uncertain terms precisely what they think about the processes that Israel and its government are currently undergoing.
Tehran feels it is firmly in the driver's seat
Netanyahu will have to draw on the full range of his rhetorical and political skills to successfully surmount those obstacles and to make lemonade out of the lemons he is being given. This is important not because of his own personal and political reasons, but for reasons of national importance: the long list of burning issues, some of which are really of crucial importance, which do require being afforded full attention.
The list of those important topics is of course topped by Iran, who else? In recent months Iran has been feeling in the driving seat, as a result of its warm relations with both Russia and China, as well as the upgrading of its relations with the Gulf States, and the unsigned agreement it has reached with the US, that led to a slowing down in the pace of uranium enrichment in return for the thawing of frozen funds and the release of prisoners. As a result of all of these, Iran has been expediting its efforts to promote acts of terrorism against Israel, and it is also adopting a much more brazen stance vis a vis the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) – with the recent barring of some of the Agency's inspectors being the latest manifestation of this hardline approach.
The only, way to bring Iran down a peg or two, reverse the trend and deter it is via the application of biting US-led diplomatic-military-economic pressure. Unfortunately, this is currently not on the cards. Washington is busy dealing with its troubles and seeks industrial quiet on the Iranian front. Back in the good old days, Netanyahu would have been able to wield influence on what goes on in the White House, but this time he just needs to say thanks for the very fact that Biden agreed to have a sit-down meeting with him. Israel is almost alone on this front, and shortly it might just have to raise the stakes in its war against Tehran.
The second most important issue is Saudi Arabia. The US is keen to reach an agreement and Netanyahu is eager to move ahead. Having said that, Israel needs to ensure that in doing so it will not be required to pay an unreasonable price on the two key issues on the agenda: Saudi Arabia's demand to enrich uranium for civilian purposes, and its demand for a dramatic military upgrade, including advanced capabilities and state-of-the-art weapon systems. Israel must ensure that its national interests are not compromised and that it is awarded a significant compensation package – both in security and economic terms – as part of the US strategic commitment to safeguarding Israel's Quality Military Edge (QME). This will be rather difficult, given the icy relations between the two state leaders, but the fact that Biden currently has one eye trained on his path to reelection in the upcoming 2024 presidential elections is a golden opportunity that must be exploited as part of the overarching deal that Washington is working to sew up.
Israel also aspires to see greater US involvement in the effort to deter Hezbollah's activity along Israel's northern border and to prompt the Palestinian Authority (PA) into more vigorous action against the terrorist cells operating in Judea and Samaria. Here too, Netanyahu will have to face a US counter-demand – to grant greater capabilities to the PA and to rein in the more radical elements in his government who are involved in a constant effort to pour oil on the fire (and establish settlements) on an almost daily basis. We are sure to hear from Netanyahu a golden selection from the best of his repertoire: differing messages in English and Hebrew, designed to placate the diverse "home" and "away" crowds.
The Silicon Valley Circus
Let's not forget the Silicon Valley Circus too, and the meetings there with the high-tech megalomaniacs, headed by Elon Musk (a sworn enemy of Biden, in what might appear to be an attempt to further complicate an already complex and sensitive situation vis a vis the US administration). In the past, figures such as Musk would have looked at Israel's prime minister with awe, but today Israel is the one making the pilgrimage to them; to some extent, this is the result of a dangerous decline in the status of the Start-Up Nation. Netanyahu would do well to remember that, especially when we are currently facing a dramatic drop in foreign investment in the Israeli high-tech industry, and deep concern over a potential mass brain drain.
This broad array of issues is sure to keep the media on its toes for the next week or so. They will not be able to capture all the headlines on their own, as Netanyahu would surely like them to, but rather they will form part of a split screen effect: on the one hand what is happening over the ocean, and on the other hand what developments are occurring here in Israel, with the ongoing hearings in the High Court of Justice, and the protests, the ministers and the MKs who will most definitely not be able to keep control of their tongues, even during such charged and trying times as these. This huge gap has been the story of our lives here in Israel in recent months: instead of dealing with the key burning issues of substance, the entire country is being forced to deal with issues of secondary importance and is being sucked down into dangerously threatening quicksand, with the active encouragement of the prime minister.
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