It is still too early for congratulations. All previous attempts by the United States, using both sticks and carrots, to convince North Korea to give up its nuclear program, especially during the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, have run up against a wall of recalcitrance and fraud.
However, at least at this stage, it appears that the decision by North Korea's Kim Jong-Un to call a unilateral halt both to his nuclear weapons tests and to his firing of long-distance ballistic missiles – if not to shelve his nuclear program entirely – reflects a victory for the Trump administration's strategy of deterrence and enforcement. We are not talking about a single move on Pyongyang's part, but another in a series of calculated moves that indicate that U.S. President Donald Trump has apparently managed to lead the dictator of the north toward a dramatic turning point.
Indeed, this past year, Kim has found himself in a face-off with an American president who has not hesitated to threaten total destruction of Kim's nation and who uses rhetoric vastly more combative and threatening than that of his predecessor. This has created a certain unpredictability about what Kim can expect if he keeps up his provocative behavior.
Moreover, on the Syrian front, Trump proved in April 2017 and again this month that he does not hesitate to use force when it comes to America's explicit commitment to act against a threat that crosses a red line, in this case using unconventional weapons against helpless civilian populations.
Given the credibility that the White House has acquired regarding unconventional weapons and its uncompromising stance in Syria and on the Iranian nuclear deal, one can understand Kim's decision to step back from the abyss and refrain from taking actual risks against a determined superpower. In addition, Washington's success in the U.N. Security Council in 2017 in increasing economic sanctions against North Korea and expanding them to include that country's only ally, China, weakened and isolated Pyongyang even further, bringing it closer to the breaking point.
Indeed, all the signs indicate that Kim blinked first and is heading toward unilateral concessions. With the enthusiastic backing of China, it was North Korea that initiated the summit with its sworn American enemy, and last week announced that it was willing to accept a continued American presence in South Korea.
And not only that: It also recently hosted Trump's pick for secretary of state, Mike Pompeo, and launched confidence-building measures on the nuclear issue.
There is no argument that the script of tactical appeasement along with strategic sleight of hand that has repeatedly characterized North Korea's behavior toward the international community should now serve as a warning light for the Trump administration. Beyond that, if the summit takes place and is deemed a success, it will send a clear, ringing message to other rogue states – first and foremost, Iran – that no countries that take aggressive, provocative action that is a threat to stability are safe. The future will tell us whether Tehran has received the message.
