In 2008, Russian President Vladimir Putin's troops invaded neighboring Georgia and seized control of two regions. That chilled Russia's relations with the United States.
But not for long.
The following year, US President Barack Obama announced a "reset" of Washington's relations with Moscow.
"The United States and Russia have more in common than they have differences," Obama said. "We want to work with Russia on issues of common concern."
Where did that lead?
In 2014, Putin's troops invaded and then annexed Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula and ignited an insurgency in Ukraine's Donbas region.
In 2022, as Putin's troops were preparing to again invade Ukraine, President Joe Biden suggested that if the Russian ruler planned to carry out only a "minor incursion," the impact on Washington's relations with Moscow would be minimal.
Where did that lead?
More than three years later, Russian troops are still waging a barbaric war to colonize Ukraine, subjugate its people, and exploit its natural resources.
Is President Donald Trump now being advised to replicate the failed policies of his Democratic predecessors?
That question might occur if you listened to presidential envoy Steve Witkoff's recent conversation with Tucker Carlson.
Witkoff said that Putin "has gotten what [he] wants" – just under 20% of Ukrainian territory – and wants no more.
The key question regarding the Russian conquest of eastern Ukraine and Crimea: "Will the world acknowledge that those are Russian territories?"
Those territories can be regarded as Russian only based on what the Institute for the Study of War calls "sham referendums" along with a Russian "state-directed effort to deport Ukrainians from occupied Ukraine and to import Russians to live in occupied Ukraine."
Witkoff then reprised the Obama "reset," asking: "Who doesn't want to have a world where Russia and the United States are doing collaboratively good things together?"
Well, Putin for one.
He's called the collapse of the Soviet Union "the greatest catastrophe" of the 20th century.
He is closely allied with – and his war is being aided and abetted by – Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Tehran, and North Korean President Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang. These dictators all want America diminished and its alliances dismantled.
As for Putin's ambitions, a video available online shows a Russian general saying on Russian state television: "Ukraine is only a stepping stone. If we are talking about Eastern Europe, which we will have to…"
I also was dismayed to hear Witkoff say: "Putin told me that when the president was shot, he went to his local church, met with his priest, and prayed for the president. Not because [Trump] could become the US president, but because he had a friendship with him, and he was praying for his friend."
Putinology 101: The former KGB officer in the Kremlin – in power for more than 20 years thanks to serial murders of opponents, dissidents, critics, and journalists – is neither sentimental nor religious.
Witkoff called Putin "super smart." That he possesses an uncanny ability to dupe Americans and Europeans is an established fact.
Recall, for example, how he convinced Germany's leaders to depend on Russian natural gas delivered through the Nord Stream pipelines. You know what that led to.
Speaking of Europeans, a little encouraging news: Britain and France are seriously considering deploying peacekeepers to enforce any ceasefire President Trump manages to catalyze.
And the foreign ministers of Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia are formally urging the European Commission to accelerate Ukraine's request to join the European Union.
This is what President Trump, starting in his first term, has been demanding: that America's allies take responsibility and meaningfully contribute to the collective defense of the West.
If I had President Trump's ear, I'd suggest he build on this momentum by personally – not through an envoy – conveying to Putin a message that might sound something like this:
"Vlady, you and I have a great relationship. Very strong. You're a tough guy. I like that. I tell people that.
"But here's the thing: We both know you've reached a dead end in Ukraine. You can't have the whole country. And I don't want you to – not on my watch. You can keep what you've taken. But that's enough, okay?"
"Look, my economy is way bigger than yours. I can cut off your oil sales and do devastating damage to Russia like nobody's ever seen. You saw how I just sanctioned a Chinese refinery that's been buying Iranian oil? I want a big, beautiful ceasefire. No preconditions. The killing stops. I tell everybody you're a man of peace but tough as hell. Look, I'm not angry. But you don't want me to be. So, let's get this deal done, okay?"
If Trump can persuade Putin to agree to a ceasefire that leaves Ukraine independent, rather than a Kremlin possession or puppet, that will be a victory for Trumpian diplomacy; an outcome as good as can be expected at this tumultuous moment abroad and at home.
The alternative is for Putin to win his imperialist war and for his buddies in Beijing, Tehran, and Pyongyang to conclude that Trump, like the two American presidents who preceded him, can be counted on to go wobbly sooner or later.
Which would mean that to achieve their geopolitical ambitions, all they need do is stick to their guns – metaphorically and literally.
Where will that lead? The enemies of free nations will see American decline as baked in the cake – even under a president committed to making America great again.
That's not the legacy President Trump is striving for. His best advisors know that. It's their job to make sure he knows that, too.
Clifford D. May is founder and president of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a columnist for the Washington Times, and host of the "Foreign Podicy" podcast
