Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is an expert at timing elections based on his political situation, does not want an election right now. His Likud party is actually in good shape, but as far as the investigations involving him go, it would be better for Netanyahu to attach any early election to the attorney general's decision and not bring an election too far forward when things are still unclear. But for the first time since he was elected in 2009, it looks like it won't be Netanyahu who sets the schedule, but rather his coalition partners.
The Likud and the haredi parties have been together for a long time. Although in the last Knesset the two sides were forced to temporarily sever ties due to an alliance between Habayit Hayehudi leader Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid that forced Netanyahu to leave the haredim out, immediately after the 19th Knesset was dissolved and Netanyahu established his new government, he and the haredim rushed back into each other's arms and swore they would never again part ways. During Netanyahu's current term, which has been characterized by haredi attempts to "fix" the acts of the previous Knesset, the Likud has had to acquiesce to much to rehabilitate its ties with its natural partners, something that came at a certain price: As more and more religious laws pass in the Knesset, Lapid has gained in the polls at the Likud's expense.
But it seems that the haredim have gone one step too far – not with their demand to pass a new bill exempting haredi men from the draft, which is anchored in the coalition agreement and to which the Likud has been committed since the coalition was formed, but with their demand that it be done immediately.
The current conscription law expires in September. The coalition isn't required to pass a new law even a minute earlier. In forcing it to, the haredim have jumped in over their heads.
The coalition has worked diligently to pass all the laws the haredim have recently demanded. It's unclear why such experienced, savvy politicians don't understand that piling the draft exemption bill on top of that right now is just too much.
If they steer the system toward dissolution of the Knesset, Netanyahu could argue that he called for an early election because he refused to give into the haredim and refused to let them dictate what to do about the draft bill. So there are plenty of players in the Likud who are pressing Netanyahu to do it – to clear up the bad impression left after recent laws were passed that outlawed supermarket operations and railway infrastructure work on Shabbat.
But Netanyahu knows very well that it doesn't matter how often he makes this claim – the moment an entire election focuses on this issue, he's already lost. Lapid is better than he is at not giving in to the haredim. Absurd as it sounds, if there is an early election, it would be better for Netanyahu if it revolved around the corruption investigations.
