Next Friday, the election results will be final. If the question about the next coalition hangs on a few votes either way, we can't predict the political picture before then. Right now, polls are predicted that only one party is hovering around the minimum electoral threshold, and that is the party of Meir Kahana's students – Otzma Yehudit. Its fate could determine the fate of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
If he wins 61 seats or more, with or without Otzma Yehudit leader Itamar Ben-Gvir, Netanyahu will set up a right-wing government as quickly as possible, one that will ensure that all its members vote to grant him immunity in the event that he is indicted. He could invite Avigdor Lieberman to join that coalition, who would then be forced to choose between being defense minister or being in the opposition.
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The members of Otzma Yehudit understand that their honeymoon with the Netanyahu government will be very short, and chances are that after he is ensured immunity, Netanyahu will do everything to distance himself from them and bring someone else into the coalition in their place. At this point, Netanyahu can't reach out to Blue and White or anyone in it, who would say that the time has come to save Israel from the spirit of Kahana and join the Netanyahu government. Of course, that would be Netanyahu's preference.
Therefore, in the process of establishing an "immunity coalition," the acolytes of Kahana will try and secure immediate benefits and reject any proposal that pertains to any later time. The leaders of the party are discussing bizarre bills and actions they plan to take. So when it comes to the possibility of a coalition with Otzma Yehudit, the days and weeks after the election will be critical, even if that means passing laws that will be later canceled. This pressure will make Netanyahu much more eager to get rid of the gang and replace it with almost any other party willing to join the coalition, even if it means paying a high price.
If there aren't 61 MKs who will recommend that Netanyahu be assigned the responsibility of assembling the next government, President Reuven Rivlin could decide to give the job to Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, who – at least for now – is working off Lieberman's script. Instead of waiting until after the election, he is already announcing that he will seek to set up a unity government with the Lieberman and the Likud, without haredim. By saying that, he is forcing Lieberman to recommend him to the president. This could result in 55-57 MKs supporting Netanyahu as prime minister, 55-57 MKs (including the Yisrael Beytenu list) supporting Gantz as prime minister and another 10 or so MKs from the Joint Arab List for whom, even if they don't recommend Gantz, Netanyahu is not an option. It's also possible that those MKs might split, and some might actively support Gantz.
If that happens, it will be a game-changer. Gantz will be assigned to establish a government. He will reach out to the Likud and ask that someone else serve as party leader so a unity government can be formed. If that happens, or if a third of Likud MKs form a new faction that joins Gantz, Blue and White will find itself leading a national unity government without the need of a rotation or a prime ministership that is weighted heavily toward the Right. Instead, it would be led by liberal officials who could make important changes (such as canceling or changing the nation-state law, canceling all the initiatives to weaken the Supreme Court, and maybe even re-launching peace talks).
There is always the option of a coalition with the haredim. That would happen only if the haredim are persuaded that Gantz would have a majority with or without them and they aren't the ones who would be handing power over to the Left. A government comprising Blue and White, the haredim, and Lieberman could be a stable one, which the Democratic Union and Labor-Gesher could also join.
