Getting Tehran and Riyadh back on track is one thing, but having Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi pay a visit to Saudi Arabia is a whole different thing. Having the Egyptian and Turkish presidents shake hands or meet in Doha and agree to resume dialogue to resolve their differences is one thing, but organizing a bilateral summit between the two leaders in either Cairo or Ankara is a different ballgame altogether. The fact of the matter is that the Middle East region is on the cusp of a new geopolitical era, and it's crucial to correctly interpret these changes.
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Recently, Mohammad Jamshidi, the Iranian president's political aide, tweeted that the Saudi ruler had welcomed the agreement between the two nations and invited him to visit Riyadh. Raisi responded positively to the invitation. The Saudi side did not comment on the news, and it wasn't published by official Saudi media.
Take the Iranian official's statement with a grain of salt, but it's not exactly a shocker considering the recent thaw in relations between the two countries. However, there are likely to be some preliminary steps before the visit takes place, such as opening embassies and establishing direct communication, as diplomatic communication is currently being mediated by a third party.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hussein Abdullahian has hinted that there might be a meeting between the two countries' foreign ministers soon, after exchanging messages through Switzerland. After about eight rounds of negotiations in Baghdad and Muscat, the initiative was handed over to the Chinese side, now serving as a direct mediator in the process. The exchange of opening embassies between the two nations is expected to take place within two months.
In a recent significant regional development, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu made a trip to Cairo, marking the first time in a decade that a high-level Turkish official had visited Egypt. The visit is part of a process to fully restore relations between the two countries.
During the visit, Egyptian Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry held talks with his Turkish counterpart Cavusoglu. Cavusoglu revealed that he is currently working to arrange a meeting between the presidents of Egypt and Turkey, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and Recep Tayyip Erdogan and that steps are being taken to resume the exchange of ambassadors with Egypt as soon as possible. He emphasized the importance of Egypt as a country in the Mediterranean and pledged that Ankara and Cairo would engage in closer cooperation in the political, economic, military, and cultural spheres in the future. He also confirmed that there would be ongoing mutual official visits in the coming period.
These two breakthroughs not only carry weight in resolving other regional issues such as Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Libya, and others, but they also signify a qualitative change in the equations of regional cooperation and alliances. Additionally, these developments have strategic outcomes related to the re-entry of Arab regional powers into the active sphere of influence in the homeland and international affairs, which will have direct links and implications for strategic interests, power, and influence in managing ongoing conflict in our region.
There is uncertainty regarding the expected nature and extent of changes in the regional network of relationships. It may not be surprising to the US ally that Saudi Arabia is cooperating strongly with Iran, considering the changes in Saudi Arabia's foreign policy in recent years.
Riyadh is unlikely to form new alliances but instead seeks to establish a new environment for Middle East security and stability. This involves defusing cross-border conflicts and tensions to create an atmosphere that enables the achievement of Saudi Arabia's ambitious development plans. Egypt shares a similar approach, and these significant developments are not expected to change the regional network of alliances. However, they may affect the policies of neighboring countries such as Israel, which aims to build a regional axis to confront the Iranian threat. Israel may need to respond to these changes as the new geopolitical atmosphere is focused on resolving existing conflicts and cooling down crises rather than forming new alliances or changing existing relationships and parties involved.
There's no denying that the recent developments in the Middle East are a major step forward in achieving peace, stability, and security, as well as fostering a culture of peaceful coexistence. These changes mark a new chapter in regional relationships.
The progress towards achieving security, and stability, and promoting a culture of peace and coexistence in the Middle East hinges on the willingness of certain countries, particularly Iran, to alter their conduct and actively work towards resolving crises. Merely attempting to diminish the influence of significant regional players and persisting with expansionist policies that have led to most of the present regional issues and tensions will not suffice.
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