The news coming out of Russia in recent days sounds as if it has been taken out of a particularly gloomy dystopian novel, or perhaps memories from the Soviet era. The state, which was far from the model of democracy to begin with, has deteriorated in a matter of weeks to a genuine dictatorship that punishes citizens not just for their actions, but for their thoughts and opinions.
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Employees who refuse to support the invasion of Ukraine are kicked out of the workplace. Students who do not support Putin's move are expelled. Border control agents check the phones of Russians heading overseas for text messages expressing subversive opinions. A Russian priest was arrested for a sermon in which he spoke out against violence and in favor of peace, something that in present-day Russia is viewed as a challenge to the regime and its path.
The more entrenched Putin's military becomes in the Ukrainian swamp, without any ability to secure a clear victory and without a clear exit strategy, the more the means of oppression taken within Russia will grow. A new law that threatens a maximum of 15 years in prison to those issuing "false reports" on Russian military activity will be enforced to the fullest to set an example. Those who remember a similar law from the Soviet era that sent many people to camps in Siberia for small talk or jokes categorized as "anti-Soviet propaganda" understand the time to flee Russia is now – before the Iron Curtain falls. There is an influx of people looking to cross the border stations for no particular reason, and thousands have bought one-way plane tickets out of Russia, regardless of the destination. As befits the social-media era, among those leaving are Russian celebrities – including those who swore allegiance to Putin, praised him, and made a fortune doing so. Their keen senses tell them things are about to change. The real test for the regime's stability will come in a few weeks when the economic sanctions begin to have an effect. While they have already influenced morale, the sanctions will soon impact Russian wallets.
For the first time in the Russian leader's lengthy reign, Putin will face a crisis that genuinely threatens his continued rule. The form of government established in 2000 was based on an unwritten social agreement between Putin and the wider public. The people gave Putin the throne, and in return, he provided stability, a reasonable quality of life, and an intoxicating sense of imperial empowerment, all of which are now being undermined. Trust in Putin will also be undermined, particularly if the economic sanctions hit the energy sector.
Energy sales remain the lone ray of light for the Russian regime. Russia has sold around 10 billion euros ($11 billion) worth of oil, gas, and coal to EU states since invading Ukraine. Should the West decide to cut off this lifeline, Russia could potentially go bankrupt, and that would push Putin into a corner.
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