Recent actions by the Cabinet have cast a shadow over the prospects of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a diplomatic breakthrough that once seemed within reach. Sanctions against the Palestinian Authority and plans to expand settlements in the West Bank have cooled Saudi enthusiasm, pushing peace further from the regional agenda.
The path to Saudi-Israeli normalization, once viewed as a potential game-changer for Middle East diplomacy, has encountered significant obstacles. Recent decisions by Israel's security cabinet have strained the delicate diplomatic dance, potentially derailing progress toward a historic agreement.
Riyadh has made it clear that any advancement in relations is contingent upon the end of hostilities in Gaza. Now, Saudi Arabia's public demand for an "irreversible path" toward Palestinian statehood stands in stark contrast to Israel's current policy priorities.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry didn't mince words in its condemnation of Israel's plans to expand West Bank settlements. In a strongly worded statement, the ministry described the move as "undermining the chances for peace" and a "continuation of violations of international law." Riyadh warned of dire consequences, arguing that such actions jeopardize regional stability and security while "fueling conflicts."
This pushback comes on the heels of a concerted Saudi-Palestinian diplomatic effort. In recent months, Riyadh has hosted European diplomats and spearheaded discussions among Arab foreign ministers, focusing on post-conflict scenarios. The kingdom has also thrown its weight behind European recognition of Palestinian statehood. Against this backdrop, Israel's recent sanctions are viewed as a rebuff to Saudi overtures.
The composition of Israel's current government is another source of Saudi concern. Some in Riyadh view the administration as an "extremist regime" uninterested in pursuing a peace agreement. This perception has led some Saudi officials to consider waiting for a potential change in Israeli leadership before pursuing further diplomatic initiatives.
Saudi media has also shifted its tone, making a concerted effort to reshape public perception of Hamas. The *Al-Arabiya* channel, for instance, has been airing near-daily footage of Gazans criticizing the [???XXX???] organization and blaming it for the current crisis. Even Hamas officials appearing on Saudi broadcasts face tough questioning about their conduct. However, Israel is not spared criticism, with Saudi media also holding it responsible for the ongoing conflict in Gaza.
On paper, these developments should have paved the way for closer U.S.-Saudi ties. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman would likely welcome a defense agreement that includes support for a civilian nuclear program, especially if it came without the complications of public opposition to normalization with Israel. However, the Biden administration faces its own hurdles. Selling advanced weapons to a nation with a questionable human rights record would require strong justification to pass Congressional approval. A historic Israel-Saudi peace deal could have provided that justification.
Complicating matters further is the uncertain political future of President Joe Biden. Saudi media has extensively covered Biden's recent televised debate performance, which many viewed as a setback for the incumbent. One prominent Saudi commentator even speculated about the possibility of a "party coup" within the Democratic ranks. A cartoon in another publication depicted Biden as a snail hopelessly trailing in the presidential race. The prevailing sentiment in Riyadh seems to be that Biden is a lame-duck president, making any significant diplomatic breakthroughs unlikely in the near term.
As the region grapples with ongoing conflicts and shifting alliances, the dream of Saudi-Israeli normalization appears to be fading. Without a dramatic change in approach from all parties involved, this potentially transformative diplomatic achievement may remain out of reach for the foreseeable future.
