At stake is nothing less than the fate of the current world order. In order to have a serious discussion about the assassination of Qassem Soleimani and its consequences, this is the necessary perspective. What stands between us and chaos and allows for a relative modicum of stability in a turbulent and dangerous world, is a world under US stewardship, which was established following the Second World War. There is no alternative candidate to replace the US in this role. Even China, which is nipping at its tail, isn't capable and doesn't want the job at this point time. To consider Europe and its imaginary "international community" as a candidate would require a highly developed sense of humor.
Iran undermines this world order by seeking nuclear weapons and regional hegemony that such a weapon would theoretically provide. The current regime in Tehran is more dangerous than the other irresponsible actors who have already acquired a nuclear bomb: Pakistan needs it to defend itself against India, and North Korea needs it to protect the regime. Neither of them is capable of achieving or is actively seeking regional control. Iran is in the midst of a methodical, sophisticated campaign to impose its hegemony over a violent and combustible region, primarily comprised of failed Arab states, ineffectual tribal allegiances and minorities susceptible to Iranian recruitment and mobilization.
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Regional hegemony buttressed by nuclear capability at this crucial strategic juncture would grant the radical, messianic and unbridled regime in Tehran the status of a global player. It wouldn't only resonate with other Muslim countries across the entire globe; Iran would become a capital – the source of inspiration, funding and weapons for every revolutionary and subversive element on the planet. Case in point, Iran has already established a global terrorist network, consisting mostly of still-dormant sleeper cells, from Southeast Asia to South America, Europe and even inside the US. Presently, this apocalyptic regime threatens the world order. If it manages to seize more oil, strategic border crossings and the holy sites, while harnessing the rage and violence of the Middle East and its proxies toward the West, it could threaten the very foundations of Western civilization.
This regime needs to be restrained, weakened, deterred and undermined. Barack Obama appeased it with a nuclear deal that bought it temporary calm, just when the Iranians needed it most, in order to develop their ballistic missile capabilities. Obama pressed ahead with the nuclear deal while ignoring Iran's thrust toward regional hegemony, which a nuclear weapon is meant to ensure. Trump, on the other hand, is pummelling this regime where it hurts most – Iran's revenue stream, which is hindering the regime's effort to simultaneously secure its three primary strategic imperatives: calm at home, regional hegemony and a nuclear weapon. The crippling sanctions are impeding all of three of these: by arousing civil strife at home, reducing the resources available to its proxies, and stunting the vast investments in its nuclear weapon and ballistic missile programs.
Iran's desperate provocations – attacks on oil tankers, downing an American drone, targeting Saudi oil exports, storming the US Embassy in Baghdad – point to the regime's profound distress over the sanctions and their success. The purpose of these provocations is to drag Trump into a conflict, alarm his supporters come November and persuade them to prefer the Obama approach – as if the choice is between appeasement and many American deaths in a war. The US chose not to take the bait, opting instead to intensify its already painful economic pressure, which has proven efficient. At the same time, the US also wanted to do something to hurt and humiliate Iran, and restore its deterrence against the regime and credibility in the eyes of its regional allies. Assassinating Soleimani was an optimal solution in this regard.
Iran is more vulnerable than ever. The United States has the tools to mortally wound it without a massive ground operation. Comparisons to the Iraq War are either ignorant, manipulative or both. The immense waste of life and capital wasn't caused by the war with Saddam Hussein, but the prolonged presence there in delirious pursuit of instituting democracy in an Arab country. The US has the tools to painfully counter any isolated Iranian attempt at vengeance. For a massive attempt at vengeance, the US superpower can exact an intolerable price, while ignoring the ridiculous calls to formally prove Iran's culpability. The only requirement is to decide in advance not to play by Iran's (and Europe's) rules.
