In the movies, similar to what occurs in the newly released HBO miniseries "Catherine the Great," the Russians repeatedly smack the Turks, the historical enemy of the Russian Empire. We can assume that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose wants to restore Turkey to the former glory of the Ottoman Empire, has not forgiven or forgotten the Russians for their past deeds, nor has he absolved them for intervening in the Syrian civil war on behalf of Bashar Assad, his hated neighbor to the southwest.
But, despite what Erdogan apparently thinks, he isn't the sultan of the Ottoman Empire and Turkey isn't as strong and formidable as he would like to believe. Hence, he is strong against the weak, specifically the Kurds, and to a certain extent the United States. However, when it comes to the Russians he is quite ready to kneel to power.
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Erdogan had a dream he hoped to realize upon the eruption of the Arab Spring close to a decade ago. In his dream he saw himself the ruler, that is to say, the sultan, of the entire Middle East. Tunisia, followed by Egypt, fell at the time to the Muslim Brotherhood, the sister movement to Erdogan's own political party. In Syria, too, the Islamist movements backed by Turkey had hoped to topple the regime. As is often the case though, dreams are one thing and reality is another altogether: The plan crumbled, and Erdogan became an enemy in the eyes of numerous countries.
At home, too, Erdogan's situation is woeful. After nearly two decades of unchecked power, the public's support for him appears to be waning, mostly due to the economic crisis. He is even being challenged within his own party.
Now added to the list of Erdogan's problems is the diplomatic crisis with the US, which he has genuinely earned. He fuelled the crisis with his decision to spurn his NATO partners by purchasing advanced Russian S-400 air-defense systems, and later to invade Syria and bombard the Kurds, Washington's betrayed ally. Which is why the Americans retaliated by imposing a series of economic sanctions, and last week with a House resolution to recognize the Armenian genocide at the hands of the Ottoman Empire.
At the root of the crisis, however, is the increasing number of Americans who no longer seem to harbor an affinity for Turkey, their long-time ally. The pivot toward Islamist extremism, the descent into tyranny, together with growing anti-American sentiment, has widened the chasm between the two countries.
Washington has also played a part in the crisis because it forgot how a global superpower should conduct itself in the Middle East. It turned the other cheek to Erdogan's mud-slinging and was rewarded for it with even more contempt. And yet, Washington is still a global power, far stronger and more important than Russia. Turkey needs the US and its relations with the West, which is key to its economic stability. US President Donald Trump, well aware of this power dynamic, hurled insults and swung right back at Erdogan – in atypical American fashion – and consequently is being met with respect.
For the time being, Erdogan's foreign policy is suffering one failure after another. Relations with Washington have worsened while dependence on Russia has grown. In the Arab world, no one wants anything to do with him. His invasion of Syria is also destined to end in calamity. Erdogan may have pummelled the Kurds, but in doing so has pushed them into the arms of Assad, an enemy no less bitter and determined.
Due to his doctrine of "zero problems" Turkey is now a country with "zero friends." Like all sultans before him, Erdogan's whims and megalomania have put his days on the throne in jeopardy.
