Settler leaders have a solution to the increased disputes in Judea and Samaria: Operation Defensive Shield II. For them, it is clear that the other side only understands force and that only this will bring calm to the region. Wrong. Operation Defensive Shield did not stop Palestinian terrorism in 2002. The scope of terrorism right after the operation was similar to the scope just before it. The Second Intifada was only stopped after Mahmoud Abbas was elected as president of the Palestinian Authority in early 2005 and under his explicit order.
Follow Israel Hayom on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram
The return of the prospect of a peace process might contribute more to calming the area (even if it aggravates the peace refusers on both sides and causes some of them to use violence). Israel holds the key to returning to the process but it is currently being pulled towards a magnet of Palestinian violence, initiated by extreme Palestinian forces.
The way to achieve this is not complicated: Israel refused to enable the Palestinians in east Jerusalem to vote in the parliamentary and presidential elections that were due to be held in mid-2021. Under the current situation, President Abbas announced that the elections would not be held at all. Their participation was permitted by Israel in the first elections for the Palestinian legislative council and presidency in 1996, in the presidential elections of 2005, and in the parliamentary elections in 2006. A new government in Israel would be able to allow the votes to take place for the presidential elections and for the legislative council elections, which might cancel the obvious excuse for not holding them: it is clear that Abbas, who was concerned for the election results, wanted to prevent them, and Israel did the dirty work for him. Israel has no security or other problem with permitting the Palestinians in east Jerusalem to vote and the moment that it does so, things will move in a way that might change the situation very, very quickly.
Abbas will have no choice but to call for elections, in which he will not necessarily be the winner. Following these elections Israel will be able to examine which direction the Palestinian leadership is facing. The consent of the chosen leadership to open political talks with Israel would have to be accepted by us with open arms. A Palestinian decision not to do this and even possibly to annul the Palestinian commitment to the Oslo Accords, might lead Israel into a unilateral move that will release it from direct control over Judea and Samaria and over the one million Palestinians who live there.
The current situation, where our sons are returning to the refugee camps, to the city centers and markets, and clashing with young Palestinians, must stop. Operation Defensive Shield 2 will only exacerbate the violence and its price might be extremely high.
And things could also see major shifts in another conflict. After many years of being part of the United Kingdom, Ireland expressed its desire to disengage. In 1922 after a long and violent battle, 26 of the 32 districts with a Catholic majority won independence. Six districts, with a Protestant majority, who wished to stay as part of Britain, remained outside of Ireland and became Northern Ireland.
For seventy years high tensions existed between the Catholics in Northern Ireland, who wished to join Ireland, and the Protestants, who opposed such a move. The Catholic violence against the symbols of the British government was exceptionally brutal and Northern Ireland became a very violent place. If you didn't have to go there, you didn't.
The Good Friday Agreement in 1998 put, to a large extent, an end to the violence there. Autonomic institutions were set up, jointly ruled by the Protestants and Catholics and it was decided that the sovereignty over the six Irish districts would be decided by a public referendum.
The interim agreement was convenient to all sides, but again proved how helpless the ongoing interim agreements were: several days ago a census was completed in Northern Ireland and the official results show a dramatic demographic turnover. As of now, there is a Catholic majority also in the north. The Catholics are now starting to demand a public referendum and the Protestants are not rushing anywhere, because they know what the result is going to be. Tensions are rising once again in Belfast and it has been proven again that a successful interim agreement is no replacement for an acrid permanent agreement. Once again the centrality of demographics has prevailed.
Subscribe to Israel Hayom's daily newsletter and never miss our top stories!
