The War Cabinet voted to approve the hostage deal with a heavy heart. The deliberations – which, by the way, concluded on November 14, a week before the public was exposed to the details of the deal – can be divided into two parts: the lull itself and the path back to war.
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The second dilemma is likely to be more challenging. On the Israeli side, it was stated in advance that the ceasefire could last more than five days, and there was even hope that it would happen – assuming that every day another batch of captives would be released. However, Hamas, already on Wednesday morning, expressed hope that the temporary truce would become permanent, meaning that the fighting would not resume at all – just as many in Israel fear. And, of course, the murderers in Gaza have a pressure lever that could push Israel into a corner: continuing the slow trickle of additional captives being released.
What will we do if, at the end of the tenth day, Hamas announces that another group of captives will be released the next day? Renew the fire? And the family members of those destined for release will plead on television not to do so? In this cynical and cruel way, Hamas can drag out the ceasefire for days and even months.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and others in the War Cabinet were well aware of the "prisoner's dilemma" that they might face at the end of the road. At this point, professionally speaking, they believe that Hamas only knows the whereabouts of no more than 80 abductees. It is unclear why they believe Hamas after all we have been through, but to ensure that they would not be boxed in, they stressed that the war will continue after the deal.
In his first statement to his ministers, before the deal came up for a vote, Netanyahu said that any such talk about ending the war once the deal was implemented was just "nonsense." Similarly, Benny Gantz also declared, "Even if there is a ceasefire to bring back our captives – we will return and strike the enemy with full force." To further make it clear there is no other option, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant stated that "any future ceasefire talks will only take place alongside fighting."
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The government also appended to its decision two "belts" designed to ensure the renewal of the fighting in any case. In an initiative by Gantz, it was stated that the war would continue in order to achieve the goals: the return of the kidnapped soldiers, the neutralization of Hamas, and the restoration of security. Additionally, according to the proposal of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who during the session shifted from opposition to the deal to supporting it, it was determined that the extension of the ceasefire would only be done with the approval of the entire government, not just the security cabinet.
And yet, everyone knows that renewing the fire may not be simple. At the heart of the matter lies the question of which path the war will take. When Yahya Sinwar ordered the Nukhba forces on the morning of October 7 to kidnap Jews, he had a clear war plan in his delusional mind. He believed that we would cry mercy, plead for our people, and agree to release all the terrorists in exchange for all the abductees. This plan did not go well in his view. Israel embarked on the path of a war of attrition. It did not fall into the psychological terror trap he had laid for it and did not agree to scale down its military response in order to secure the captives' release.
That was the situation until the government approved the deal. From the moment that the majority of ministers voted in favor, we essentially fulfilled what Sinwar wanted. And that, then, is dilemma number 2 that we must still deal with.
