"After the holidays" is the new "after the budget has passed," at least as far as the Knesset is concerned. The Knesset has been bubbling over for a while now, but as long as the budget had yet to be passed, coalition members were generally cautious and treated one other with respect. They conducted themselves with relative restraint and avoided saying out loud that which was in their heart.
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"After the budget is passed," the ministers would say every time they were asked why they were not advancing campaign issues and why they were holding back when the government was operating in contrast to their worldview.
New Hope party head and Justice Minister Gideon Sa'ar is interested in passing a law that blocks Netanyahu's path to the premiership. "After the budget," Prime Minister Naftali Bennett replies. The Americans are pressing to establish another diplomatic mission in Jerusalem. "After the budget," Lapid implores. Transportation Minister and Labor party head Meirav Michaeli is asked about public transportation on Shabbat. "After the budget," she replies.
If this experience is at all reminiscent of credit card payments, well then payday is already here. Just like almost everything else in this government, in this case, too, a majority of promises cannot be kept. And then the government will need to face its first real political test.
Opposition Leader and Likud party head Benjamin Netanyahu remains the glue holding the coalition pieces together, but that glue has gotten old and moldy. The voters demand achievements, and the government has too few of those to show them. The government is barely able to function. Government ministries that have been crying out for a budget discovered early on that once the budget is passed, they will need to suffice with the crumbs ministers will throw them once tens of billions of shekels have been channeled toward political conservation and maintenance.
Ministers who are unable to succeed in their roles tend to cause a ruckus in other areas. For such a fragile coalition, this ruckus could prove destructive.
The government is still in its infancy, but the rifts inside it are more characteristic of governments whose time is almost up. And this is the case when the government is not being forced to contend with any serious challenges. Yes, there may be a pandemic to deal with. But on the security front, things are pretty quiet right now. Even US President Joe Biden, who seems poised to lose his patience, has internalized the coalition's "after the budget" messaging and has been sitting tight.
We're about to see if this quiet can hold. When the government opens a yeshiva in the outpost of Evyatar, authorizes thousands of housing units in the settlements, and continues to voice its continued opposition to the opening of the Palestinian consulate in Jerusalem, the progressives in Biden's party will force Biden to act. Should the security situation, God forbid, suddenly flare-up, even senior government officials believe that will spell the end of the coalition.
Recent polling is exacerbating the challenges and difficulties facing the government. The rise of Netanyahu and the right-wing-Haredi alliance should lead everyone else to stick together. On the other hand, at this early stage, two lawmakers are beginning to think about the day after. Those who set their sights on the Left will need to fight a few dozen lawmakers for a place in the party lists that will pass the electoral threshold, like Yesh Atid, Labor, and perhaps Blue and White. Those who lean rightwards have only one address: the Likud. But they can only hope to wind up there if they help break apart the coalition. Should the government dissolve naturally on its own in another two or three years, no one will take them back.
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