In the flurry of reports about the peace deal between Israel and the United Arab Emirates and the delay in the plan to extend sovereignty to large parts of Judea and Samaria, one issue has been forgotten. While considered marginal, it could prove to be central precisely in this context: the inheritance battle over the leadership of the Palestinian Authority.
The UAE, supported by the US, intends to support Mohammed Dahlan, the exiled Fatah strongman who became an adviser to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. Dahlan, considered part of the PLO mainstream and who is known for his good ties with Hamas leaders, is being touted as the replacement for Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas. The belief that Abbas is continuing down the same dead end as his predecessors, prompted Gulf leaders to think and forge a new, modern, and sustainable path.
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Dahlan is supposed to be a different, innovative, and groundbreaking president, mainly without the fears that have prevented right up until today the signing of a permanent agreement with Israel. His first steps in creating a new base of support show his desire to bring peace, ahead of establishing a state with an economic footing that will bring hope to its citizens. The 15 years Dahlan that has spent doing business abroad will give him the requisite experience to establish a real state in the West Bank and Gaza, and not some kind of undefined body that survives on endless handouts and donations.
But Dahlan is in for a surprise. He won't be welcomed and he'll have to work his way through forcefully. Dahlan has already begun building the system that will make sure his landing is as soft as possible. But in the West Bank, there are those waiting who see themselves as potential inheritors: Jibril Rajoub, Mahmoud al Aloul, Tawfiq Tirawi, and Majed Faraj.
All understand that an attempt of the West with Israeli support to forcefully plant Dahlan could result in a bloodbath. Dahlan is leaving Gaza for the second stage, hoping that after they see how the West Bank improves, they'll want to duplicate his model. He is planning to implement all that he learned in the Gulf: establishing a democra-tatorship, meaning, centralized single rule which allows for a good life, widespread economic reform, infrastructure investment, innovative industry investments, tourism, banking, etc. "The Gulf states have oil," his opposition challenges him; "But the West Bank and Gaza can together with Israel be a popular tourist destination," his supporters answer back.
If we hear soon about "sides getting ready," don't be confused. These won't be political sides, but armed militia fighting to keep the traditional policies of the Palestinian leadership for generations against the parachuting of a western collaborator. Will Dahlan be able to seize the leadership in Ramallah without one bullet being fired, or will we have to watch a Palestinian civil war? Either way, the countdown has begun.
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