The election results, as of Wednesday morning, strongly resemble the last polls we saw before the election and essentially crown Naftali Bennett the kingmaker of Israel. Even if Netanyahu secures 61 mandates without Bennett, he cannot allow for a government that completely depends on an extremist, backward party. If Netanyahu gets less than 61 mandates, he will rely on Bennett, but cannot offer him a rotation deal because the moment he stops being prime minister he cannot then be a cabinet minister – his nightmare scenario due to his trial.
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Bennett has thus far received far fewer votes than he expected, but the moment he crossed the electoral threshold he became an axis party. Just as he was defense minister with five mandates, he can now demand a premiership rotation with just seven mandates, and because he is far more likely to receive this long-desired position from the anti-Netanyahu coalition, we could soon find ourselves with a government with a hawkish prime minister and pragmatic, left-leaning coalition.
I'm happy about the number of seats secured by Labor and Meretz, and there's no doubt that Blue and White has notched a commendable achievement. We see once again that the reports of the peace camp's untimely demise were greatly exaggerated. I hope Labor and Meretz now join hands to form a very significant faction in the next Knesset. I believe that a Bennett-led government, established with the support of the more moderate elements in the Knesset, would make a considerable effort to advance diplomatic initiatives. But even if Bennett decides to put his dream of being prime minister on hold and joins a right-wing and far-right-wing government, we could see a repeat of history when past constellations of this sort came to power.
Menachem Begin, as prime minister, made peace with Egypt and gave up the entire Sinai Peninsula even before the Dash party led by Yigal Yadin joined him. Yitzhak Shamir, as leader of a far-right-wing government, was the one who ultimately agreed to attend the Madrid Conference – which paved the way for the accords with the Palestinians and the peace treaty with Jordan – following the 1988 elections, which solely revolved around the issue of Israel's participation in an international peace conference.
In other words: A right-wing government alone will be very exposed to the world, including the Arab countries that recently normalized relations with Israel, and it could find itself in a diplomatic process contradictory to election promises. The happiness of the hawks is still premature.
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