The Oct. 7 massacre, in which 1,200 people were murdered and 250 Israelis were kidnapped by Hamas terrorists, has been deeply etched into the collective memory of the Jewish public in Israel. While the country deals with hostage negotiations and the possibility that fighting against Hamas will resume alongside continued IDF operations in the West Bank – an interesting development has occurred beneath the surface in how the Jewish public in Israel perceives the conflict with the Palestinians.
In the three decades since the Oslo process began until today, Jewish-Israeli society has undergone a dual disillusionment regarding Palestinians. Analysis of public opinion polls conducted since the 1990s at Tel Aviv University, as part of the "Peace Index," clearly illustrates the change that Jewish society in Israel has undergone during this period.
The first disillusionment occurred in the early 2000s, with the outbreak of the Second Intifada, when it became clear that the Oslo process had not brought the hoped-for peace. The Palestinian refusal at the Camp David summit to accept Israeli proposals that promised Palestinians a state in almost all areas of the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and of course the outbreak of the violent campaign that Palestinians launched against the Jewish state, made it clear to Jewish society in Israel that peace would not come.
While polls indicate that before the Second Intifada, most Israelis supported the Oslo process but were divided in their opinion about its ability to bring peace between the peoples – after it, the Oslo process lost the support of the Israeli public, which no longer believed this formula would lead to peace.
The continued negotiations with the Palestinian Authority were complex. On one hand, the Jewish public in Israel still expressed support for a diplomatic process with the PA (60% in 2001 and 66% in 2012 on average). On the other hand, it did not believe that negotiations would lead to a peace agreement (64% in 2001 and 73% in 2012 on average).
The second disillusionment came following the Oct. 7, 2023 massacre, when it became clear to the Jewish public in Israel that the conflict with the Palestinians could no longer be managed and that they could not be allowed to establish a semi-state terrorist entity.
Following Hamas' barbaric massacre, which received unprecedented support among Palestinian society, a reversal occurred in the public opinion of Jewish-Israeli society, which was already skeptical about negotiations. As of late 2024, only 35% of Jews in Israel express support for a diplomatic process with the PA, while 88% do not believe negotiations will lead to a peace agreement.
The Oct. 7 attack greatly influenced how the Jewish public in Israel views the type of possible solution to the conflict. In this context, the two-state idea, which would establish a Palestinian state alongside Israel and which in the past enjoyed the support of the majority of the Jewish public in Israel (68% in 2010 and 53% in 2016) – is no longer an option: only 25% support it as of late 2024.
It is important to note that even before the October attack, a reversal had occurred in public opinion in Israel regarding the two-state idea (only 38% supported it in September 2023), but there is no doubt that the massacre intensified the opposition of Jewish society in Israel to the establishment of a Palestinian state.
Regarding two additional solutions to the conflict – the idea of a binational state on one hand and annexation of territories with minimal rights for Palestinians on the other – it appears that the Hamas attack did not affect the opinion of the Jewish public in Israel, which as of late 2024 continues to largely oppose both these options (83% versus 9% for a binational state and 52% versus 37% for annexation).
In conclusion, it appears that the Jewish public in Israel has become disillusioned with peace with the Palestinians and with the illusion that the conflict can be managed. I hope that the collective memory in the people of Israel will be deeply rooted, so that we will not be tempted in the future to take dangerous steps that will threaten the Zionist enterprise.
