The defense establishment's decision to close off the roads near the Gaza Strip and stop the trains in southern Israel for fear they would be targeted by sniper or anti-tank fire was necessary in light of threats by the Palestinian Islamic Jihad to avenge the arrest of one of its senior operatives in Samaria, Bassem Saadi.
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The fact that the daily routines of residents of the south were disrupted to arrest, not even kill, a terrorist, could be interpreted as weakness on Israel's part, and a considerable achievement for rogue terrorist groups, but the alternative – an anti-tank missile hitting an Israeli bus – is no better, and could propel the entire country into several days of war.
The people who decided to arrest the senior PIJ operative in Samaria was certainly aware of the close ties between the PIJ in Gaza and its members in the West Bank. By arresting him, Israel took a calculated risk of escalation on its southern border, but the risk was necessary given the intelligence from the Shin Bet security agency that Saadi had been working to rebuild PIJ activity in Samaria and was behind major efforts to build forces throughout Samaria, especially in Jenin. According to the Shin Bet, Saadi's presence was a major factor in the radicalization of PIJ operatives.
Anyone with any understanding of security issues knows that a wave of terrorism like the one that Israel experienced a few weeks ago cannot be suppressed or stopped without arresting terrorists planning attacks and there is no doubt that most of the recent arrests in the West Bank played a key part in helping check the recent wave of attacks.
The PIJ's serious intention of avenging the arrest shows that the group is determined to maintain its equation of responding every time the IDF takes action against its top members. Unlike Hamas, the PIJ is a rogue, trigger-happy terrorist group without any commitment to the welfare of the residents of Gaza.
Nevertheless, Israel hopes to avoid escalation in the south, and is therefore stepping up defenses on the ground and in the air, and putting indirect pressure on Hamas to hold the PIJ back. Israel understands that Hamas does not currently want an escalation, because it could pay a very heavy economic price.
Hamas' desire for calm stems mostly from the fact that Israel allows about 14,000 laborers and tradespeople into the country every day, allowing them to support their families. The current assessment is that every one of these workers supports eight more relatives. If there is no military escalation, the government could decide to expand that number to 20,000, but Hamas realizes that if a conflict erupts, the first things Israel will do will be to close the tap and freeze entry for works.
At this stage, the security and defense apparatus thinks that tension in the south will continue for the next few days. Israel's success in preventing another round of violence will depend to a large extent on how its civilians and soldiers behave. In the past, some have exhibited a shocking lack of compliance with instructions designed to save their lives. We can only hope that this time, there will be no "genius" who dodges a military barrier only to be hit by fire from the PIJ.
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