The monarchy in Saudi Arabia has arrived at a historic turning point. In terms of its foreign affairs, the evolving geopolitical situation in the Middle East has not been easy for Saudi Arabia and its regional allies. While the Saudis have observed how the US influence in the Middle East has diminished, similarly they have noted how their regional rival Iran has made considerable efforts to fill this growing political void.
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Since the fall of the Imperial State of Iran, and the rise of the Islamic Republic in 1979, its theocratic regime in Tehran has made numerous attempts to undermine the stability of the Saudi monarchy. At the same time in the domestic arena, the Saudi monarchy has needed fresh perspectives to accommodate the needs, wants, and hopes of its young population. Adding into this equation the challenges posed by the changing world, the leading Saudi commentaries are quite clear that the next Saudi king needs to think beyond the framework of what could be described as the typical royal family thinking. There is no room for weak leadership. In other words, under a weak monarch, the kingdom could end up in collapse.
Saudi policymaking is a process that constantly evolves. In the past decades, major changes in Saudi policies have taken place within the limits of traditional tribal-familial framework. Based on such a framework, the Saudi king is the final arbiter of decision-making, although he is expected to make all important decisions by shaping family consensus through consultation. However, in recent years the developments in Saudi policymaking have been more noticeable. When it comes to Saudi foreign affairs, during the regency of Mohammed bin Salman the Saudi monarchy seems to have become publicly more articulate about its interests.
Indeed, since the start of King Salman's rule, and even more so after Mohammed bin Salman's appointment as a crown prince, several commentaries in the Saudi press have emphasized that Saudi Arabia needs to recalibrate its policies to the changing world, and that it could no longer depend on outdated policies if the monarchy wished to successfully confront those rapidly growing threats that surround the kingdom. In foreign policy, the kingdom has shifted from being reactive to proactive. Most noticeably, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman the Saudi foreign policy has become more decisive, but also bolder and more independent. Based on how the events have played out in the surrounding region and beyond, it appears that the old way of shaping the Saudi foreign affairs is no longer enough. However, not everyone has been in favor of a strong and more independent Saudi Arabia that could not be easily pushed.
In recent months, experts quoted by the Western press have criticized Saudi oil policy. Indeed, since the war broke out in Ukraine in February 2022, substantial instability and supply disruptions have menaced the global energy markets. Especially in Europe, the situation has been difficult. Although the Russian invasion of Ukraine has triggered the current energy crisis in Europe, however, the roots of this crisis are much deeper. Most importantly, the European states have not diversified enough their energy supply and they have been too dependent on Russian oil and gas.
Going back to the recent criticism of Saudi oil policy, the claim in the US press has been that the Saudis are not doing enough to ease the global energy crisis. Some politicians and experts in the US have even alleged that Saudi oil policy is serving the Russian interests, and that the monarchy is reorientating itself towards Russia. I find such accusations politically motivated and naïve. In fact, such claims indicate complete lack of understanding of what Saudi Arabia's strategic interests are, and how these interests are intertwined with the inner workings of the Saudi monarchy. Concerning how the Saudi monarchy formulates its oil policy, Mohammed bin Salman has stressed already in 2016 that the Saudi petroleum resources should not be treated emotionally but rather as an "investment, nothing more, nothing less." Undoubtedly, Saudi petroleum resources and financial wealth are the most powerful tools that the monarchy has at its disposal in world affairs. Fundamentally, the Saudi oil policy is based on Saudi interests. Although these interests may vary from Saudi king to another, however, just as it is with any other monarchy in the world, the Saudi policies serve essentially one elementary objective: the purpose of preserving the monarchy.
Therefore, one should ask the following question. Should Saudi Arabia increase its oil production, as pressured by the United States, and which in turn could help to lower the price of oil? Russia might benefit from the current high level of oil prices, but due to the slowing world economy and the looming economic recession, a coordinated effort by the producers to increase oil production could, in fact, risk leading into oil price collapse. Although defying the US demands could affect the relationship between the two allies, it is likely that the Saudis had calculated that the danger of an oil price collapse could end up being even more dangerous to the monarchy. Such a development would be detrimental to Saudi economic interests.
For the Western world, the continuity of a stable monarchy in Saudi Arabia is, without any doubts, a crucially important objective as it is directly linked to Western strategic interests. Although the risk of collapse of the Saudi monarchy is not an imminent threat, one cannot ignore the possibility that new attempts could emerge to undermine the rule of the Al Saud. In order to prepare for the uncertainties of the future, Saudi Arabia should be ruled by a strategic, visionary thinker, and solid statesman who plans several moves ahead. Based on how things have played out in Saudi politics in recent years, one could argue that behind the veil of secrecy Mohammed bin Salman has the characteristics of a Machiavellian strategist who has managed to outsmart his political rivals in the royal family. In conclusion, Mohammed bin Salman's policies seem to be consistent with the observation that the old way of forming Saudi policies is no longer sufficient to preserve the monarchy.
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