Security tensions are expected to peak in the coming week, as no less than four sectors are likely to challenge the defense establishment: the Temple Mount, the Gaza Strip, Judea and Samaria, and Arab Israelis.
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While Gaza commanded attention over the Passover holiday, the Temple Mount continues to pose the most complex challenge. The past week has seen Hamas and the northern branch of the Islamic Movement step up efforts to agitate the situation on the ground, prodding Arabs Israeli and Palestinians living in east Jerusalem to riot. This was done primarily via social media, where fake news and disinformation could push the false narrative that "Al-Aqsa is in danger."
The coming week is likely to be especially volatile as Christians in Jerusalem mark Easter at the same time as Muslim worshippers are expected to flock to Al-Aqsa Mosque for the last days of Ramadan.
While the Israel Police plans to increase its presence on the Temple Mount and in east Jerusalem, there are currently no plans to restrict Muslim worshippers from praying at the site, although this may change over an uptick in violence.
In contrast, Jewish worshippers will not be allowed to visit the holy site until the holiday ebbs. This move was also employed last year, in an attempt to reduce friction on the mount.
Over in Gaza, Hamas has been taking steps to curb the sporadic rocket fire. The terrorist group's security forces have made some arrests and its officials have relayed messages to Israel via Egypt and Qatar that Hamas has no interest in provoking further escalation.
Still, Israel chose to react forcefully to the rocket fire over Passover, mounting a significant airstrike against Hamas infrastructure in the Strip and preventing Gazans from crossing into Israel for work.
Hamas' efforts, however, may not be enough to prevent an escalation in hostilities. The Gaza-based Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other terrorist groups do not share its concerns for Gaza, where the situation is already on edge over the Temple Mount riots – encouraged by Hamas.
This dangerous game could easily spiral out of control, which is why the IDF will maintain high alert in the southern sector in the next few weeks.
Judea and Samaria remained relatively quiet over the past week, but the IDF remains vigilant there, too. Six reserves battalions are expected to be called up and deployed in the area, to allow regular forces to resume their training.
The Israeli Arab sector has also remained mostly quiet but defense officials warn that could change in a heartbeat. Events on the Temple Mount could ignite this unstable arena within minutes and here, too, efforts to debunk online disinformation are extensive – albeit only partially successful.
The end of Ramadan will not necessarily spell the end of recent security tensions. Threat management at this time requires carful strategizing and high alert should be maintained at least until after Independence Day.
This will also require the political and defense echelons to be as synchronized as possible. Given the number of elements seeking to destabilize the situation, the real challenge lies ahead.
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