The walls are closing in on the Right. Across four election campaigns, the ruling Likud party failed to form a coalition government on its own. In the first campaign, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu turned to then-Labor party head Avi Gabbay, proposing to relinquish the nationalist struggle for changes to the judicial system. In the second campaign, he fortified the bloc that prevented the Left access to power. In the third election, attempts were made to govern through a unity government that at best could be described as paralyzed. Now in the fourth campaign, it appears all ideological dividers have been crossed.
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On the Right, Netanyahu rescinded the Likud's historical bloc on the radical Kahane movement. On the Left, he left the door open for a partnership with Ra'am, the Islamic Movement's political wing and the local branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. Despite all this, he is still unable to garner a stable majority that will lead to a functioning Knesset.
It is vital the Knesset function so that it can lead the country out of the coronavirus deficit, but also to get the State of Israel back on track. One of the challenges the next government will face in the foreseeable future is a dramatic change to the Supreme Court as it is joined by six new justices. If the next government is a nationalist one, there is a chance the compromise legislation aimed at resolving the government crisis by delaying the approval of the state budget will be a watershed moment that restores ties between the Knesset and the court to their original state.
The parties aspiring to challenge the Likud from the Right now find themselves in a strange situation. In recent weeks, beginning with the Mount Meron tragedy and continuing with the Arab riots in mixed Jewish-Arab cities and the High Court of Justice's ruling on the compromise, warning signs pertaining to the ruling party's ability to act in the face of the challenges facing the state flashed overhead. Instead of "forcing" them to act as one would expect, parties to the right of the Likud are now pondering going with the Left, with the support of the Joint Arab List. These satellite parties are breaking off from the Likud.
The New Hope party has a lot of ideas up its sleeve. The party's detailed platform includes changes to the judicial and education system and support for expanding the settlement enterprise. Party leader Gideon Sa'ar himself supports a proactive military campaign in the Gaza Strip, something that would have been relevant to Operation Guardian of the Walls. Unfortunately, all this was neglected in favor of adherence to his "anyone but Bibi" policy.
Over at the Yamina party, things are a bit more complicated. Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked are challenging the Likud from the right. The same is true of Religious Zionist Party head Bezalel Smotrich. They have a laundry list of complaints: the illegal Bedouin village of Khan al-Ahmar, the regulation of settlements in Judea and Samaria, the override clause, the release of convicted terrorists. Unable to form a government, they have no one to criticize and no one to bring over to the Right. As a result, nationalist voters now find themselves lost in a maze with no exit in sight.
I have written here before about how personalization has replaced ideology. This same personalization also eradicated pressure on New Hope members, when protesters outside of Ze'ev Elkin's home behaved aggressively toward his family members. Demonstrators outside the homes of Yamina party members, however, succeeded in getting their message across without resorting to violence. This may have something to do with the fact that New Hope members were for many years part of the Likud. This, alongside the lack of a desire to share power, has transformed any possibility of pressuring New Hope into something of a boomerang effect in efforts to enlist defectors.
The situation is particularly dire because all of the options on the table are terrible and will ultimately lead to increased chaos across additional election campaigns. A right-wing government dependent on Ra'am will not be able to increase sovereignty and will ultimately bring the Left to power. A left-wing government founded on right-wing parties will demolish the nationalist camp. Fifth elections could lead us toward the same process, with Sa'ar and Bennet liable to find themselves below the electoral threshold and Likud lacking any option whatsoever to establish a government as Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid and the Left cling to power.
No matter how you look at it, the Right is no longer able to win.
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