There is an incredible discrepancy between the situation in Israel today, in which we are living almost normal lives alongside COVID, and the messages from experts in the healthcare system and academic, which are telling us that "the fifth wave" is already here.
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There are a few factors that explain this difference. First, the more time passes, the less effective the vaccine becomes, a process taking place at the same time that the Omicron variant is spreading. We can already say that it is much more contagious than previous strains, and the number of people who contract it doubles every three days.
A clinical study conducted at Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer teaches us that the immune response in people who received both vaccine doses and a booster shot is somewhat less effective in neutralizing the Omicron variant, and that the immune response to this variant in people who received only two doses or who received the second dose six months ago or more is near zero.
Paradoxically, if we find that this strain is highly contagious but does not cause serious cases of COVID-19, it's possible that it could push out other mutations and turn COVID into a minor illness.
Secondly, the question that concerns Israel more than any other is the high number of people who still have to be vaccinated – over 2 million residents if we count the unvaccinated, children who have yet to be vaccinated, and adults who haven't gotten booster shots.
Europe, which is in much worse shape than Israel due to its higher numbers of unvaccinated residents, is currently putting a series of restrictions in place, with an emphasis on those who haven't been vaccinated or haven't gotten booster shots. These measures include selective lockdowns.
The challenge Israel faces to vaccinate over 2 million residents is an even bigger one than the fourth wave of the virus. When the Delta variant began to spread, healthcare authorities decided to begin administering booster shots, even though the FDA hadn't approved them. But the moment the decision was made, about 4 million Israelis responded and rolled up their sleeves, causing the fourth wave to die down. Now we need to convince the anti-vaxxers and the vaccine-hesitant to do the same. This is a much bigger challenge.
To succeed, we need to continue targeted outreach. For example, Sheba and the director general of the Health Ministry recently hosted a conference for the country's prominent rabbis, in which we answered their questions and enlisted them to help the campaign to persuade their communities to get vaccinated.
At the same time, preference should be given to those who got vaccinated and acted on the principle of responsibility for one another, as well as protecting themselves and their families. It's not right to compel all those who return from abroad to quarantine, even if they were exposed to the Omicron variant. This policy is fundamentally wrong for vaccinated citizens.
As for those who still haven't gotten vaccinated, it's time the gloves came off and harsher steps were taken. For a start, restrictions should be put on entry to non-essential public places, and we could go as far as increasing their health tax. Still, making vaccines mandatory is impractical.
No less important is the need to strengthen the healthcare system and add beds to ICU units to avoid any need for a general lockdown should the number of seriously ill patients exceed the few spaces currently available in ICU. During the fourth COVID wave, we found ourselves in extremity, in which there was no room for another patient on an ECMO machine anywhere in the country. So we need to start implementing a plan by the Union of Hospital Directors to add 321 ICU beds to the country's hospitals – a plan that was the result of lessons learned in the second wave.
The bottom line is that the solution is in our hands. If we all enlist, we can live safe lives alongside COVID.
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