The terrorist attack claiming the life of Dvir Sorek early Thursday morning evoked memories of the abduction and murder of three Israeli teens – Naftali Fraenkel, Gil-ad Shaer and Eyal Yifrach – in June 2014, in approximately the same location.
Then, much like today, the roads are the main Achilles' heel. It is a reality of unreliable public transportation and unorganized, trustworthy carpooling services, where youngsters without driver's licenses must still try getting from place to place. Many prefer not to take the risk but countless others do: Anyone driving through Judea and Samaria can see, even on Thursday after the attack, young Israelis who, despite everything, hitchhike or even walk, alone, in contravention of clear safety instructions.
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This reality creates incredibly ample opportunity for terrorist attacks. Luckily, most are foiled in advance. The Shin Bet security agency and IDF are accomplished in this area; although it provides no solace after such a tragedy. And yet, we must still look at the broader picture. The war on terror is a daily task of Sisyphean proportions. It has no beginning, and certainly no end. Expectations of 100% success are, always, unrealistic; the constant friction between Israelis and Palestinians, the shared roads, living and working in such proximity, and fundamental emotions are an endless platform for terrorist attacks. There will always be that one determined terrorist cell that manages to find the breach in the system or exploit a mistake – and pounce.
The Israeli challenge is to thwart these attacks without ripping apart the fragile fabric of life in Judea and Samaria. Separating the roads isn't a problem; it's already been done in the past. But this means limiting mobility for Palestinians, which in turn results in less work, eroding their economic situation and exacerbating their despair – a proven recipe for an increase in terrorist attacks. The diplomatic-security echelon wants to avoid this, and rightfully so; therefore, the focus is on pinpoint action, to thwart and deter, but with the aim of allowing Palestinians to continue living normally.
On Thursday, security forces devoted most of their energies to locating the attackers. It stands to reason that the terrorists operated in an area familiar to them, and in all likelihood live or work nearby. Similar to past incidents, the manhunt is integrating technological tools (cyber, signals intelligence, and other visual means) with human intelligence. We can assume that Shin Bet agents are shaking every tree in Judea and Samaria to see what information falls out.
The two main lines of investigation, as of Thursday night, were that the attack was either carried out by a local terrorist cell or by a structured organization – with an emphasis on Hamas. The first avenue is supported by the fact that the murder was perpetrated with a knife, a primitive weapon, and that the killers hastily sought to get rid of the body instead of trying to hide it or take it as a bargaining chip to negotiate the release of Palestinian security prisoners. The second theory is supported by the fact that Hamas is working tirelessly to orchestrate terrorist attacks in Judea and Samaria, through unceasing encouragement, incitement and funding from the Gaza Strip. Such was the backdrop for the abduction and murder of the three teenage boys in the summer of 2014, and it's no different today. Even if we learn that Hamas had no connection to the latest attack, its operatives are working day and night to execute similar ones.
Simultaneous to the manhunt for the killers – not just to bring them to justice but to stop them from acting again – the brunt of the effort is now geared toward preventing similar types of attacks. It is has been well-documented in recent years that many terrorists were motivated by the desire to carry out copycat attacks. Hence reinforcements were deployed on Thursday to Judea and Samaria, in an attempt to dissuade and discourage potential copycats from any thoughts of imitation.
These efforts will certainly help prevent more than a few attacks, but as stated – they won't reduce terror to zero. The Gush Etzion junction and its environs look completely different than they did five years ago; with lighting, cameras, and many more soldiers and other security measures in place. And still, just a short distance away, another Israeli was murdered: a stark reminder that the war on terror never sleeps.
