Despite the numerous public remarks the United States and Iran have made about future nuclear talks, namely in terms of who will blink first before they begin, global powers returned to Vienna last week to work toward a new-old world order.
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This order, which has been taking shape since Joe Biden was sworn in as the 46th US president, has seen Iran return to center stage after four years of international isolation orchestrated by the Trump administration. On the other hand, America's "natural" allies are paying the price – chief among them Saudi Arabia and Israel.
In Tehran, Iranian officials used the time well, smelled weakness in the White House and dug in their heels, vowing not to negotiate with America until it removes all economic sanctions.
How then, can they save face and enter talks with the "Great Satan?" In the diplomatic arena, ingenuity is a valuable asset when one wants to neutralize a previous commitment. The Iranians are the world champs at negotiations and particularly excel at blinding the West. The solution that emerged is rather simple, because everyone wants the same thing.
The members of the American delegation headed by Robert Malley, the former Obama administration envoy and one of the architects of the previous nuclear deal, won't meet with their Iranian counterparts directly; rather remain in different rooms at the Grand Hotel Wien while the Europeans act as intermediaries. We already know how this is going to end. It will take some time, but it will come because the officials are the same officials and the tune everyone is singing is the same tune. The pens will be unsheathed by senior officials, perhaps even the countries' respective foreign ministers, and they will each put their signatures on the leather-bound documents before them.
Then it will be time for the "photo-op," the prized group picture with all the fake smiles on display.
Iran's presidential election on June 18 must also be taken into account. Hence, although another agreement is likely a done deal, the West must not move too quickly. Weakness comes with a cost and Tehran has a keen sense for it.
Another factor, which is the most important of all and tends to be forgotten, is that either way, the 2015 nuclear deal will expire in 2025. Until then, anything can change.
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