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Dan Schueftan

Dan Schueftan is the head of the International Graduate Program in National Security Studies at the University of Haifa.

There is no civil war on the horizon

The strength of a society is measured by its ability to overcome problems, and Israel excels at that. Other western democracies, which do not face the challenges Israel does, are sinking.

The political crisis in Israel should be examined using strategic tools and from a comparative perspective. It is also important to draw a distinction between the problems that are unique to Israel and the inherent problems that characterize most democracies, as well as between a political impasse and a society's strength.

Most western democracies are in crisis: the US, Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Australia. The various local backgrounds of the crises differ, but what they have in common is the public's loss of faith in elected officials' commitment to coming up with ways of meeting its needs in a time of dramatic, incomprehensible changes to the economy, the culture, and politics. In an era of over-transparency, politicians need to speak for the record and sound good rather than speaking plainly and doing what must be done. They need to provide immediate satisfaction rather than invest in improving situations, and appear to be right rather than offering leadership and achievement in domestic issues and foreign policy.

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The crisis in Israel and all over the world is a serious one, but the most important test of national security is a societal one: a strong society will overcome political troubles, whereas one that has lost its vigor will not. In the US and Europe, political polarization is a reflection of societal polarization. The US is on the brink of a cold civil war between the devotees of President Trump and those who loathe him. A large segment of the public in Europe responded to their irresponsible leaders' delusions at one extreme (mostly on immigration and national identity) by adopting dangerous positions at the other extreme. In most democracies, the centrist bloc – which seeks a constructive, functioning balance between legitimate national needs and the implementation of universal values – has grown much weaker.

Despite the clichés about Israel being a fractured society where the threat of civil war looms large, the continued leadership by the centrist camp proves that there is deep solidarity, strong foundations, wonderful resilience, and a deep commitment to pluralism in society and politics. Alongside a shrinking far Left and a larger far Right, most of Israel is in the center of the political map. Among those who founded the state, who defend it, who keep its economy running and are responsible for its achievements – the non-haredi Jews and the Druze – the centrist bloc is even more dominant.

Within this centrist camp, there is a broad national consensus on the biggest national issues. It is no coincidence that in the last two highly-charged elections, there was no real dispute over civil or economic matters, or about foreign affairs and security. When it comes to socioeconomics, everything is focused on improving the welfare state, whereas in the US and Britain key officials are speaking out against the efficacy and justice of the existing systems.

When it comes to security and defense issues, there is no serious disagreement about action against Iran, even though it could lead to a major war. The Palestinian issue? Both sides know there is no chance for peace in the near future and are embarrassed: the Right doesn't know how to stay in Judea and Samaria and keep the State of Israel alive, and the Left doesn't know how to ensure security.

Despite the significant differences in emphases, there is a very broad national consensus about the principles of the state being Jewish and democratic. Without that, it is impossible to understand how a society exposed to missile threats and the risk of war enjoys such economic success, improves its regional and international standing, or achieves what it does in technology and science, not to mention its rich cultural output.

The political crisis is disturbing and burdensome, but society's ability to ensure its ongoing security and flourish – despite political entanglements – testifies to its ability to overcome them, too. Other democratic societies have achieved much less in much easier conditions.

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