It seems to me that a person needs a certain basic amount of integrity to admit that the term "paranoia" is a little exaggerated to describe the worry over various political scenarios that the prime minister's associates are warning against.
But after Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman's astonishing and uncompromising conduct over the past year, any other attitude toward possible plans of action in which he could be involved should be considered complacence. In effect, when we're talking about the Yisrael Beytenu leader, experience teaches us that, unfortunately, the most unlikely possibilities should be taken as realistic. After the April election, he proved that he is not afraid of coming off as a loose cannon, and the Sept. 17 do-over election proved that the national camp – which used to be his home – again has no reason to put its trust in him.
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The thing is, in times of political polarization and intra-bloc power struggles, it's impossible for anyone to be on their own. When you intentionally harm group A, you automatically operate in favor of group B. Some laughed when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned about that, but in the next few days we might discover that his diagnosis was correct: Lieberman really has proved that he is on the Left. If not in terms of ideology, then certainly in terms of bloc politics.
This isn't a problem, by the way. A person can be on the Left and lend a hand to the establishment of a left-wing government, even one that is supported by the Arab parties. But Lieberman, at least when it comes to what he's saying, is unwilling to touch even Meretz with a 10-foot pole. He is supposedly floating around the "demilitarized zone" of a liberal unity government, but the more time passes, the clearer it becomes that he is being driven amok to his very political limits. A few more jumps, and he'll find himself in a place he defines as enemy territory.
If and when Blue and White leader Benny Gantz receives the mandate to form a government, the foundations of the discourse about the political crisis will change dramatically. Surprisingly, the way out of the impasse will entail "technical" support for some government or another, so long as the clog is removed. That feeling will create legitimacy, not to say a need, for Lieberman to make the unusual move of supporting a narrow government that would be established with the support of the left-wing bloc and the Arab parties. In other words, a government that would rise only to fall, leading to yet another election.
Lieberman wants so badly to be the one who puts an end to the Netanyahu era that he was willing to abandon the national camp after the election and drag the country into a do-over. His conscience won't bother him, not even if a narrow left-wing government is established to ensure that comes to pass.
But anyone who thinks that the parties that support such a government won't demand payback when it is in place, or that the Left will forgo an opportunity to implement part of its ideological agenda merely because it would be a short-term, narrow government, is wrong. We can also be sure that no political analysts will mock Gantz as the "temporary prime minister" or refer to the government as a "minority" one because they will want to legitimize its decisions. It would be a left-wing government, and until a new election is held, it will work according to the platforms of its member parties and under a commitment to whoever supported it. And we won't be able to complain. Israeli political history teaches us that no left-wing government is too narrow and no term as prime minister is too short to make strategic decisions that, paradoxically, the next elected right-wing government will have to fix.
So indeed – to be served Netanyahu's head on a platter, Lieberman will rekindle an Oslo Accords government.
