Tensions between the United States and Turkey have risen in recent months. The Pentagon explicitly and repeatedly warned Ankara that its purchase of Russia's S-400 defense system would cost it its participation in the F-35 production program. One of the Americans' main concerns is that the Russians will be able to use the system to collect quality intelligence about the fighter jets.
Turkey decided not to heed the US threats, and after receiving the first delivery of the Russian system in mid-July, Washington announced Ankara's official removal from the program. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan responded by saying his country would source its military equipment from other sources, a threat he appears he will make good on following Russia's offer to supply Turkey with its advanced SU-35 Sukhoi jets.
The S-400 system and the SU-35 jets were programed and manufactured in response to US stealth technology and in order to shoot down NATO planes. Turkey is one of the oldest and most important members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization; its conventional forces are the second largest in the alliance after the United States. It is safe to assume that with the purchase of the Russian defense system, Ankara has officially crossed the Rubicon.
Russia seeks to undermine security and political cooperation between the US and Turkey by exacerbating mutual skepticism between the two countries, intensifying anti-American discourse, echoing government propaganda and silencing criticism. In one example of this tactic seen earlier this week, the broadcast of an interview on Sputnik Turkey with the country's former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu was cut short after he issued sharp criticism of Erdogan's conduct.
As a rule, Russian attempts to influence Europe are largely focused on diminishing support for pro-American decisions and sowing distrust in NATO among members of the alliance. In a country like Turkey, where local disinformation already runs rampant, Moscow doesn't need to make too much of an effort. Seen in this context, Turkey's possible withdrawal from the alliance could be a prestigious achievement for Russia.
According to the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act, passed by the US Senate following Russia's meddling in the 2016 presidential elections, the president must impose sanctions on any official involved in defense or intelligence deals with Russia: The S-400 deal certainly meets this criteria. If President Donald Trump makes good on his threat, it will send a firm message that could serve to bolster American deterrence in general, and toward Iran in particular, especially given the recent tensions in the Persian Gulf.
Nevertheless, it is difficult to exaggerate Turkey's geo-political importance. Furthermore, Turkey's expulsion from the F-35 program is expected to have economic repercussions for the US. In light of the sanctions imposed on India last year, following New Delhi's purchase of the S-400 system, it seems Trump will need to take an equivalent step toward Turkey. And yet we must hope that after using the stick, he will be wise enough to offer Erdogan a carrot, thereby keeping the Turkish leader from falling into Russian President Vladmir Putin's arms and keeping him out of the Russian bear's embrace. Such a development, were it to transpire, could plunge the Middle East into chaos.
