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Dan Schueftan

Dan Schueftan is the head of the International Graduate Program in National Security Studies at the University of Haifa.

US determination more important than rhetoric

Trump might not be drafting a doctrine but his actions can together be cobbled into a clear approach against Iran, designed to focus on its strategic threat to the US and its allies, and on the best means of dealing with it.

You can't overestimate the importance of the new path charted out by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo earlier this week when he announced the reimposition of UN sanctions on Iran.

What's important is not their global impact but the determination of the Trump administration in countering the regime in Tehran. The steps announced may be legally problematic and hence will not be upheld by Russia and China and even the E3, who are ostensibly US allies. The former group wants to sell arms to Tehran (and oil), and the latter is keen on doing business with the ayatollahs.

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The new sanctions add another layer to the sanctions that were placed by the administration two years ago, and which have already drastically damaged Iran's economy and hurt its illicit activities. Despite the E3 trying to find a mechanism that would bypass the sanctions, this has failed because leading European firms have been too wary of being blacklisted by the US and being shunned from the US market.

Trump's detractors have tried to cast his recent steps against Iran as an electoral move that is designed to show conservative voters that he is tough on Iran. While acting in such political matter is indeed a natural thing to do for every candidate, these critics have ignored Trump's very consistent, and very effective, action to weaken Iran.

They keep ignoring that despite his rhetoric being rather all over the place, his policies have not changed that much over this tenure on this matter. He might not be drafting a doctrine but his actions can together be cobbled into a clear approach against Iran, designed to focus on its strategic threat to the US and its allies, and on the best means of dealing with it.

The most severe threat posed by the Iranian revolution is regional hegemony. Iran and its proxies could control oil, various strategic points, and potentially the religious epicenter Mecca. This would change the balance of power in the global arena and Europe should be more concerned than others but it has consistently tried to appease the regime.

Trump wants to withdraw most US troops from the Middle East and that would be good for Israel and the US' Arab allies so long as it also weakens Iran.

The US could deter the meddling of other powers in the region, it could give political backing (such as against various UN initiatives), and provide economic, military and technological aid. Trump can also do so by encouraging regional alliances among countries that are worried over Iran's rise, as well as Turkey's.

The question is, What does the region needs? Lovely visions of peace and democracy or a new order that allows a good chance of dealing the principal dangers lurking? President Barack Obama had inspiring speeches and even got a Nobel Peace Prize for his rhetorical accomplishments, but Trump has determination that works in Israel's favor.

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