The announcement that the United States is withdrawing its forces from Syria should not really have come as a surprise to anyone in Israel's diplomatic-security circles or the media.
But with most of the focus in Israel on tactical steps rather than well-ordered strategies, we once again woke up to a surprise reality that Israel does not want.
From the time the Syrian war broke out in 2011, Israel has chosen to ignore the historic processes taking place on the other side of the border. While Russia, Turkey and Iran spotted the geopolitical opportunities the war presented and adapted their regional activities in accordance, Israel opted to wish all sides involved good luck and preened about tactical military achievements.
Israel had a clear strategic interest in seeing the war end with Syria split into three states, based on the ethnic population distribution: Alawite-Shiite, Sunni, and Kurds. If that had come to pass, it would have been enough to block Iranian expansion, and beyond that, it would have presented a strategic opportunity to redraw a historical border that expressed international recognition of Israeli sovereignty on the Golan Heights, which comprise a mere one percent of Syrian territory. That interest dovetailed with the international desire to prevent mass murder, uphold human rights, and prevent an exodus of refugees.
Israel missed a historic opportunity to speed up vital changes in arranging borders in the Middle East that were drawn up forcibly at the end of World War I. Now, the withdrawal of American forces from Syria demands that Israel exert all its influence to convince its U.S. ally to adopt a "hybrid" mentality on everything having to do with Syria and recognize the Golan Heights as Israeli as the final steps of the pullout.
A move like that would serve long-term U.S. interests in defending Israel's security and the stability of Jordan, without keeping any forces on the ground. The Golan is only viable if it remains in Israeli hands, and any Israeli withdrawal to the shores of the Sea of Galilee would ensure an inherent lack of stability that sooner or later would require U.S. military intervention.
There are no vacuums in the Middle East. In the absence of determined, immediate action by Israel to secure U.S. recognition of Israel's sovereignty on the Golan – before the U.S. withdraws from Syria – Israel could find itself facing international demand for a dream deal for Syrian President Bashar Assad and Iran: Iran would withdraw from Syria – which would remain under the cover of various militias, similar to the Hezbollah model in Lebanon – in exchange for Israel withdrawing from the Golan Heights.
The clouds hanging over international politics could wind up creating a perfect storm, to Israel's detriment. One morning, we could wake up to another, much bigger surprise: unrestrained international pressure to withdraw from the Golan Heights, in the spirit of the "solution" raised before the Syrian war.
Those who see this as a nightmare scenario should ask themselves whether they envisioned that within a few years of the start of the Syrian war, Iranian forces would be a stone's throw from Quneitra, and that Assad would be back in power after hundreds of thousands of his own people were killed and millions more turned into refugees.
