Wednesday's consultation in the White House might not only determine the fate of the Trump administration's peace plan and the application of Israeli sovereignty in settlements in Judea and Samaria, but also the fate of the new government. While Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to move ahead with the plan, his unnatural coalition partners are working to torpedo it.
It seems as if the Americans are no longer demanding broad national agreement in Israel and support from Blue and White for the move, as they were two weeks ago. But if they pull their support, Netanyahu might blame the other half of the government and blow everything up.
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In political terms, an American rejection of Netanyahu's proposal of applying sovereignty now could help the prime minister to throw the hot potato to someone else. I tried, he will tell his voters, but the Americans changed their minds and hit the brakes. But Netanyahu, it appears, doesn't want to get rid of the hot potato and would prefer to see it burn along with the entire government. He wants sovereignty, come what may. An American refusal could prompt him to finger Benny Gantz and Gabi Ashkenazi as responsible, creating a real crisis.
But even if the Americans announce that they have approved one of the options Netanyahu presented them with, everyone involved will still be beset by political difficulties. An agreement like that could cause Gantz to climb down and support the plan, but it's not certain he'll use the ladder he's being offered, and he might dig in his heels. Netanyahu could bring the decision to the cabinet even without support from Blue and White, but in that case, the entire deal would be resting on nothing.
In the meantime, the prime minister is being treated generously by his natural coalition partners. The leaders of the Haredi parties have made it clear that if he decides to hold a vote on the plan without Blue and White's support, they would vote for it. And it's also possible that despite everything, Netanyahu is the one who might wind up needing the American ladder and that after they refuse, all will be calm. The period between the coronavirus crisis and the planned rotation will give him a chance to reset.
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