Over a week into the Russia-Ukraine war, no one knows whether Vladimir Putin will win or lose. Will the incursion satisfy his hunger for the expansion of Russian territory or will he move on to conquering other lands? There are lots of speculations and very little substantive information which has resulted in a variety of forecasts about the future.
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One of the main motivations for the invasion is demographic: the European Slavic population of Russia is declining sharply, while the Asian community within its borders is growing steadily. Ukraine will likely serve as a reservoir of Slavic blood, to make up for the demographic deficit in the federation.
But if demography is indeed Putin's main motivation, then "New Russia" (the Crimean peninsula) and "Little Russia" (Ukraine) will not be enough to quench his thirst, and we may in the future see Russian tanks move toward Belarus, a.k.a. White Russia, and Moldova.
Unless the West is willing to defend the eastern European border, there may very well occur a domino effect, which will generate panic in Central European countries. Moreover, international inaction may signal a new ethos – or rather an old-new ethos – the revival of the imperial model.
In fact, the belief that the West would be able to protect small countries from non-liberal regimes was first refuted in 2008, when Russia invaded Georgia, and in 2012, with the fiasco of then-US President Obama's "red line" in Syria.
It sent a clear message to aggressive regimes like China, Russia, and Iran: liberal Westerners are too individualistic and too divided to be able to stand up to determined invaders. They excel at posting the blue-and-yellow flag on social media and expressing support for the Ukrainian people but are too immersed in their hedonistic relativism to send their sons to risk their lives on the battlefield.
The European Union, which relies on gas from Russia and is guilt-ridden due to its colonial past, may have begun imposing severe economic sanctions on Russia but has not yet exiled Russian diplomats.
Similar to how they respond to human rights violations in Syria, Iran, and China, Europe will most likely prioritize short-term personal benefits over offering a sacrifice that is truly needed to protect core values and principles.
Like the leaders of these regimes, Putin too despises Europeans, who have forgotten that diplomacy is not worth much unless it is backed by a credible military force. The Kremlin is taking advantage of what it perceives is the weak American leadership, with its anti-China obsession and being one step away from signing a nuclear agreement with Iran.
Following the Holocaust, European Jewry enjoyed a period of seventy years of unique favor, thanks to the liberal ethos that has silenced antisemitism and condemned was as a political means in the international arena. If Europe is unwilling to fight for these values in the national arena, it is safe to assume it will also be unwilling to do so at home.
Europe might simply succumb to pressures to distance Jews from the public arena and delegitimize Israel. Given the economic downturn, the demographic fluctuations due to massive uncontrolled migration, and the erosion in the belief that politicians are capable of protecting their citizens – European Jews have good reasons to worry.
This is already taking place in countries bordering Ukraine, but it may also spread to Germany, France, and Britain. History has shown that anarchy and disregard for the rule of law are always bad news for the minority, who are easy prey, such as Jews.
Unless Europe stands up for its values, it will be destroyed and Jewish living within its borders will be forced to leave, or at the very least – pushed to the margins of society.
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