Last week, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah poked his head out of the bunker he has been hiding in for the past 15 years to congratulate Hamas on its "victory" in the fight against Israel. Not to worry, it takes someone like Nasrallah, still traumatized from the pummelling his organization suffered in the Second Lebanon War, to know the difference between declaring victory and the painful reality he and his people discovered in Beirut's Dahiyeh neighborhood after the war – or what was left of it. Hamas leaders currently coming out of their bunkers are awakening to the same devastating reality in Gaza, which they brought upon their people.
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Hence, more than trying to hitch his wagon to Hamas, it appears Nasrallah instead sought to explain to his supporters why he avoided a confrontation with Israel like the plague and chose to sit idly by instead of helping Hamas on behalf of Jerusalem and the Temple Mount.
Nasrallah's appearances were always considered "the best show in town." His speeches combined messages that everyone, including Israel, would intently tune in to, with the exceptional rhetorical ability of a talented and skilled orator. This entire perception crumbled, however, with the sound of his first cough and the many more that followed. Thus Nasrallah's victory speech became his "coughing speech," and instead of focusing on his threats and bombastic declarations, his health situation drew most of the headlines. Were it up to his advisers, we can assume, Nasrallah would not have delivered that speech, but that would have bolstered the perception that yet again, similar to many previous instances in recent years, Nasrallah was afraid of Israel and wanted no part of military confrontation.
Contrary to Hamas, which has replaced its leaders numerous times, not in the least due to several assassinations attributed to Israel, Nasrallah been the sole, dominant leader of Hezbollah for close to three decades now. As with any typical Middle Eastern dictator, he made sure a possible successor never emerged, which brings us to the questions currently arising in Lebanon about the day after Nasrallah, which even if delayed is still inevitable.
Syrian President Bashar Assad, meanwhile, publicly celebrated his election victory last week after garnering a fantastical 95.1% of votes. It's safe to assume that the blows Hamas suffered at the hands of Israel didn't temper his joy. After all, Assad has neither forgotten nor forgiven Hamas for standing against him and supporting the rebellion against his regime during the Syrian civil war.
Nevertheless, Assad's fake victory does tell a real story. Contrary to all prognostications, he survived the war, remained in power, and slowly but surely, through a process replete with obstacles and setbacks, he is rehabilitating and strengthening his standing internally and externally. The Arab world is slowly reopening its doors to him, and some voices in the international community are already advocating for reinstating ties with Syria. From Israel's perspective, there's no question Assad is a murderous tyrant. However, like his father before him, he has upheld the quiet along the border. A stronger Assad could restore the balance to the northern sector, where Iran and Hezbollah have had the upper hand in recent years. In one indication that the tide could be turning, Assad appears to be on the mend while Nasrallah, the undisputed king of the north for a decade running, is struggling to finish sentences in between coughs. And this isn't necessarily a bad thing for Israel.
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