As per a recent report from The Wall Street Journal, Iran is rallying its regional supporters to carry out attacks on Israel, with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force commander Esmail Qaani organizing undisclosed gatherings with various militant factions to coordinate specific assaults against Israel. The report indicates that the move is a part of Iran's attempt to unify its allies and combat Israel amidst what the newspaper describes as a significant escalation in the ongoing undeclared conflict between the two nations.
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The report at hand raises a significant question regarding Iran's motives, objectives, and the veracity of its supposed intentions to escalate the conflict with Israel in the near future. Several points merit discussion, the foremost of which is the Iranian regime's apprehension concerning the approach of the Benjamin Netanyahu-led Israeli government and the possibility of said government employing direct military escalation against Iran. This is a likely outcome given the historical context of the conflict between these two parties, albeit subject to multiple limitations and restraints, which the Iranian regime acknowledges.
Nonetheless, Iran recognizes that its primary recourse against any sudden Israeli military attack will involve the use of scattered militias and factions in the vicinity of Israel. Therefore, there is a need for coordination, task distribution, and potentially devising a comprehensive plan for leadership and roles in such a scenario, which the Israeli side is also expected to anticipate as the conflict between Iran and Israel persists.
The Iranian leadership acknowledges that Israel and the US closely monitor the movements and actions of General Esmail Qaani. As such, they view these actions as a means to send messages to their adversaries and to pressure Israeli and American decision-makers to consider potential Iranian reaction scenarios in any action aimed at targeting Iranian interests, whether within Iran or Syria. Therefore, it is not surprising that the Iranian side is preparing for coordinated plans with its sectarian militia allies, given the ongoing Cold War with Israel. Nonetheless, analyzing the Iranian regime's past behavior indicates that it does not resort to preemptive military escalation in the presence of aggressive Israeli or American governments. This pattern was evident during former President Donald Trump's tenure and continues under the current Israeli government. The Iranian leadership recognizes that these circumstances reflect an extremist trend and, therefore, endeavors to refrain from rushing into any operations, limiting itself to a second strike or a reactive response to any attacks directed at Iranian interests or its known allies.
There are those who speculate that a political settlement to the tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran could prompt the latter to adopt an escalation approach towards Israel, and that the Revolutionary Guards' preparations align with this context. This hypothesis has some merit since the Iranian regime feels somewhat reassured now that the building of a regional alliance to counter Iranian threats is less of a concern.
Nevertheless, Iran is cognizant that the timing for escalation is not appropriate, given the increased Israeli sense of danger following recent developments in Tehran's relations with its Gulf Cooperation Council neighbors. Moreover, attempts to revive the nuclear agreement between the 5+1 group and Iran have failed, and Iranian efforts in uranium enrichment have intensified. In addition, Iran's position on the Ukraine crisis has intensified its dispute with Western countries, notably the EU, causing Israel to be more vigilant against Iran. Therefore, in a more favorable international environment, Israel might be more inclined to overlook any Israeli operation that directly targets Iranian nuclear facilities.
According to the evidence, Iran is feeling more confident due to the cooling of tensions with its Gulf neighbors, as well as stronger ties with China and Russia. Additionally, the US seems to have diminished ability to engage in direct confrontation with Iran due to the complexities and consequences of the Ukraine conflict, as well as the perceived weakness of the current US administration's will to defend strategic interests or support its traditional ally, Israel. The Biden administration is primarily focusing on the scenario of nuclear negotiations and has yet to effectively use a balanced diplomacy approach that includes both incentives and deterrents to achieve its objectives.
The preceding discussion on Iran's confidence doesn't necessarily entail mobilizing troops and agents for a strike on Israel, as Iran is fully aware of the consequences of such a scenario, given the dynamic state of international relations. The lack of restraint on Israel's behavior itself poses a problem, and hence, the talk of mobilization may be primarily viewed as a form of psychological warfare, and secondarily as a message of preparedness to deter Israel from targeting Iranian militias and sites in Syria.
Nevertheless, this does not rule out the possibility of these militias and pro-Iranian factions testing the patience of Israel and the US by launching sudden missile strikes here and there, to gauge their response and prepare for future action. It is also a means of responding to any Israeli military operation and preventing Netanyahu's government from escalating tensions, even on a limited scale, especially since their agenda prioritizes uprooting Iranian influence from Syrian borders adjacent to Israel, which they consider a partial success and reinforcement of Israel's security in the context of the declared confrontation with Iran.
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