If you believe Syrian media reports, earlier this week Israel struck a military compound where chemical weapons were being developed. The strike, in which Syrian scientists, Iranian troops and Hezbollah operatives were killed is, in and of itself, nothing new, as over the past few years the foreign media has often attributed similar strikes to the Israeli Air Force.
Now that President Bashar Assad, backed by Russia, Iran and Hezbollah, is reclaiming control of the Syrian Golan Heights, the threat he poses Israel has resurfaced to the point of potentially jeopardizing the 1974 cease-fire agreement between Israel and Syria.
The Israeli Air Force has enjoyed considerable operational leeway in the northern sector during the seven-year civil war in Syria but now that it is waning, this latitude may be curbed. If that is the case, what are the chances that the next time Israel eliminates a threat on Syrian soil, Assad would retaliate?
According to Dr. Yehuda Blanga, an expert on Middle East politics from Bar-Ilan University, Assad, like his father before him, is likely to opt for indirect retaliation, targeting Israeli assets overseas or tasking Hezbollah with doing his bidding.
"This has been Syria's way of retaliating without risking a direct military conflict with Israel," he explained.
Blanga said that right now, Assad and his allies are "up to their necks" in efforts to re-establish the regime's grip on the war-torn country, meaning that retaliating against Israel is not a priority for them.
The Syrian president is likely to reassess the situation once he feels his rules is stable but even then, he may choose not to risk a conflict with Israel or use Hezbollah against it. Instead, Assad will probably call on Iranian terrorist cell abroad to carry out attacks against Israel.
"This way, Assad will be able to bolster his image as Syria's defender and while we will know who was behind the attack, we won't be able to target them directly," he said.
Middle East expert Dr. Mordechai Kedar said that one of the main unknowns in this equation is how fast, and to what extent, the Syrian army would be rehabilitated.
"If Assad's army has anti-aircraft missiles that can hit our jets Israel wouldn't rush to strike [Syrian soil] because no one sends their fighter jets on a one-way mission," he said.
According to Kedar, another issue is the question of Assad's confidence and the extent of the influence Russia wields over his regime.
"Unfortunately for Assad, Israel is backed by the U.S. – the Trump administration backs [Israeli] strikes in Syria – and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is well-coordinated with [Russian President Vladimir] Putin. Right now, the Kremlin doesn't seem to care about these strikes and it's unlikely that Assad would risk defying it."
Professor Efraim Inbar, who heads the Jerusalem Institute for Strategic Studies, believes Russia will be able to stabilize the Syrian sector, including setting red lines for Assad.
Israel and Russia are maintaining close coordination with regards to IAF strikes on threats in Syria and the issue will not become a problem unless Moscow decides Jerusalem's actions are jeopardizing its regional interests, he explained.
According to Inbar, even if Assad is able to reinforce his army, he will never be in a position to dictate terms to Russia, for the mere reason it would leave him completely vulnerable to Iran.
"Assad doesn't want to be an Iranian puppet and he needs Russia to prevent that from happening. Israel need not worry."
Dr. Daniel Schueftan, chairman of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa, also believes that until such time as Assad feels he has completely re-established his regime, he is unlikely to retaliate against Israel.
According to Schueftan, regardless of his hold on power, the Syrian president would be wary of crossing Israel's red lines.
"Even if Assad will be motivated to strike back – he will think twice. He knows Israel would be willing to risk Hezbollah missile salvos on its citizens to protect its interests and if need be, it will go to war in the northern sector," he said.
