Residents of Gaza, who are marking the beginning of the Muslim holy month of Ramadan on Monday, if they were asked, would undoubtedly rather forego the current round of fighting with Israel, initiated by Palestinian Islamic Jihad and which forced Hamas to follow suit. But Islamic Jihad and certainly Hamas, which controls the Gaza Strip, ultimately had to take Ramadan into account as they weighed their costs and benefits moving forward. While they signaled to Israel their ability to disrupt Independence Day celebrations this week, they were also well aware that every victory comes with a price and that in Gaza, the people wouldn't forgive them for turning Ramadan into a month-long war of destruction and devastation.
This, in theory, was enough to balance out the desire of the armed factions to hurt Israel and win a few points, and perhaps a few more dollars from Qatar, and their need to ensure that the latest round of violence would be limited in scope and quickly come to an end.
Hamas' logic, however, doesn't necessarily coincide with Islamic Jihad's logic. The latter doesn't bear responsibility for governing Gaza; hence it has been trying for quite some time to ignite a conflagration and position itself as the tone-setter versus Israel. In the future, it could fight Hamas for superiority, not just when it comes to Israel but over control of Gaza.
At present, Hamas is hostage to Islamic Jihad's whims. It cannot allow itself to be perceived as conciliatory toward Israel and the enforcer of peace and quiet along the border, while its own operatives and members of Islamic Jihad are being killed.
Herein lays Israel's fundamental problem. It isn't contending with one Palestinian enemy, but three: Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and finally the Palestinian Authority, which gleefully looked on as its adversaries, Israel and the armed Palestinian faction in Gaza, exchanged blows.
From the south, Egypt watched with concern as the flames grew higher. The Egyptian interest is to ensure that peace and quiet persists, but it doesn't have the power to impose its will on the Palestinians. From farther afield, meanwhile, Iran and Turkey have poured gas on the flames, although their ability to influence events on the ground is partial and limited.
What's certain is that the cease-fire agreement secured early Monday morning will also be partial and limited, and won't be enough to solve Gaza's root problems. Hamas and Islamic Jihad will boast of their achievements against Israel, but Gaza will continue to sink further into the gutter of extremism and backwardness. We can safely assume, therefore, that the latest round of fighting won't be the last.
