Israeli officials are concerned that Iran will exploit the fact that the world's attention is entirely focused on the coronavirus to secretly push forward its nuclear program.
Iran is one of the hardest-hit countries in the world in terms of the coronavirus pandemic. As of Wednesday, the Islamic republic's official casualty figures were 3,036 dead and some 48,000 infected. According to assessments in the West, however, these figures are much higher.
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Israeli intelligence officials believe the numbers are four or five times higher than the official reports, but it isn't clear if the gap stems from intentional efforts on the part of the regime to conceal the true picture, or from the general disarray in the country and the fact that quite a few regime officials are among the dead and sick.
The coronavirus pandemic exacerbates the crisis in which the regime is mired even further. Irrespective of the virus, the situation in the country is very difficult due to US sanctions and the heavy economic price they are exacting. Amid this backdrop, the current crisis is viewed as further evidence of the regime's ineptitude, after its hesitant and delayed response to the virus means it is now struggling to get it under control.
The intelligence officials expressed concern that the regime's distress – perhaps the most severe since the Khomeini revolution in 1979 – could drive it to seek to fortify its position inside the republic and externally against the world. One of the paths it could choose is the nuclear project, while exploiting the international community's preoccupation with the coronavirus.
Iran, regardless, has already said it no longer considers itself obligated to the nuclear deal, after the US withdrew from it and imposed comprehensive sanctions. Consequently, Iran has reverted to enriching uranium and has even collected hundreds of kilograms of low-grade enriched material – although it is proceeding slowly so as not to overplay its hand. Israeli intelligence officials said in January of this year that if Iran continues at its current pace, within a few months Tehran could amass enough enriched uranium for its first nuclear bomb, and that if it doesn't halt these efforts it will be able to finish the bomb-making process in late 2021.
The fear now is that Iran will accelerate these processes. Due to the coronavirus crisis, monitors from the International Atomic Energy Agency have stopped oversight activities in Iran's nuclear facilities almost completely – and very soon they could decide to leave the country altogether. This would leave Iran's nuclear sites without any effective supervision and open a possible path for Iran to move toward a bomb. Another move Iran could make is to establish a secret task force to advance its nuclear project far from the prying eyes of IAEA observers and foreign intelligence agencies.
Iran has used such clandestine task forces in the past (mainly in 2003), and now the concern is that it will return to working secretly to exploit the global chaos to move far closer to nuclear breakout capability.
The possibility that Iran is now speeding ahead to a bomb has spurred Israel to intensify its efforts to gather intelligence on Iran's nuclear activities. It's safe to assume that Israel is keeping other Western intelligence agencies in the loop, to conserve global coordination mechanisms on this front.
