If Israel proceeds with its plan to apply Israeli law to the Jordan Valley and settlements in Judea and Samaria, the European Union will take punitive measures of relatively little economic significance, European diplomats have been saying in recent talks ahead of the target date for Israeli sovereignty – July 1.
The diplomats preferred not to be quoted by name due to the sensitivity of the issue.
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According to the European envoys, the internal working guidelines of EU institutions; the historical relationship between Israel and Germany, as well as other EU member nations; and Europe's interest in maintaining good relations with Israel will ultimately prevent the EU from responding harshly to the application of Israeli sovereignty.
The officials said that EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs Josep Borrell Fontelles was leading a line very critical of Israel. AT a meeting of EU foreign ministers some three weeks ago, Borrell tried to publish a joint statement warning Israel not to extend sovereignty to the Jordan Valley and settlements in Judea and Samaria, but Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Austria blocked the move. Borrell was forced to put out the statement in his own name only.
Moreover, Borell's independent action drew criticism from EU member states and even President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, as it violated EU work rules, which require consensus for such steps.
Diplomats expect that the EU nations friendly to Israel will also block initiatives from Sweden, Ireland, Luxembourg, and other countries to place Israel under economic sanctions.
"Every major decision about European foreign policy requires consensus of all 27 member nations," one diplomat observed.
"Because of the serious disagreements, European diplomats in Israel cannot even agree on what is happening here. If they can't agree on the facts, there will not be any agreement about sanctions," he continued.
The officials also noted that Germany – the strongest EU member, which currently holds the rotating EU presidency – will not lend its hand to serious action against Israel.
"It is inconceivable that Germany would recall its ambassador from Tel Aviv or agree to any economic boycott of Israeli products. A scenario like that or anything similar to it is simply implausible," another diplomat said.
The envoys also said they did not expect the EU to cancel its partnership with Israel on the Horizon 2027 research initiative, because Israel's research and development capabilities were "too good" to give up. They said that even if there were several officials in the EU Foreign Ministry who wanted to punish Israel severely over sovereignty, other key actors in EU institutions would use the tools at their disposal to undermine attempts to do so.
Ultimately, the diplomats assessed, Europe's response to the momentous step Israel plans to take on July 1 will be largely verbal and symbolic. They expect the EU to issue a harshly-worded response that will accuse Israel of violating international law, and it is possible that policies of labeling products that originate from Judea and Samaria will be enforced more strictly than they have to date. Another possibility, they said, is that the EU might pass a resolution not to upgrade its ties with Israel, a step that has been frozen for decades already. Finally, the diplomats said it was likely that a number of EU nations would unilaterally recognize the existence of a Palestinian state.
The diplomats who spoke with Israel Hayom attacked the EU's internal policies, particularly when it comes to Israel.
"Every time that Israel is under discussion, you can see that minds are locked. The discussion becomes dogmatic and nothing reasonable can be said. People are stuck in perceptions from the past, and for some, you can see how annoyed they are by their faces and hands. The European discourse is very hypocritical," one official said.
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