At a certain point, Yariv Levin, usually a calm man, lost his patience. Working secretly with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he spent months on the Trump administration's peace plan, and in a historic turnaround they included Israeli sovereignty in the plan. In other words, an expansion of Israeli territory rather than the concessions demanded by all other plans. While all this was going on, the two ran in three Knesset elections, with Levin as Netanyahu's closest confidant, deputized to handle political negotiations with the other parties.
Demonstrating political steadfastness and ability to maneuver, the two orchestrated the breakdown of Blue and White. Later, even though the government was an emergency one established to handle the coronavirus crisis, they got Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to agree to Israel declaring sovereignty on July 1. Levin himself, who was tourism minister and saw the sector for which he was responsible collapse, then took on the weighty role of Knesset speaker and continued to play a part in meetings of the Israeli-American Mapping Committee. And now, when a right-wing prime minister – who is also on trial, accused of bribery – arranges the biggest diplomatic moves the Right has ever secured, representatives of Israel's settlements stand up and say, "No thanks, toss the plan."
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On Tuesday, it was chairman of the Council of Jewish Communities in Judea and Samaria (Yesha) David Elhayani who said just that in a meeting with Netanyahu and Levin. The new Knesset speaker, usually calm, was furious. Without quoting him verbatim, his response was along the lines of "We have done dramatic things on your behalf and you're throwing it all away? Remember where we were four years ago, under Obama. Think about where we might be after Trump."
Netanyahu has said similar things to the settlers. He warned them that their pressure campaign against the plan could "bring everything down, because we are facing a historic opportunity to apply sovereignty to Judea and Samaria." Netanyahu also hinted to the settler that the American administration's patience was running out: "The Americans aren't in the same place they were five months ago," he said.
It was a tough meeting. After it was over, all sides might have agreed to dial it down, but they did not convince each other. Netanyahu did not mention many of the questions he was asked. As far as the settlers are concerned, the picture remains as unclear as it was before the lengthy conversation with him. They don't know how what the map of sovereignty will look like; are not agreeing to any construction freeze, even a partial one; and are not willing to see 15 settlements left as isolated outcroppings. They are also demanding that Netanyahu take back his agreement to a future Palestinian state, a term that appears 48 times in the Trump plan. Netanyahu has no intention of doing that.
The door is closing
Elhayani represents the radical fringe of settlers who oppose the Trump plan. To his credit, he doesn't look at the framework plan from his own perspective alone, as head of the Jordan Valley Regional Council, but from the broader viewpoint of his role as head of the Yesha Council.
"As a man of the valley, I have a lot to lose by opposing the plan, but on my watch as head of the Yesha Council, no community will be abandoned," he told Netanyahu as well as several media outlets.
It might be a question of style as well as approach, but most local council heads in Judea and Samaria have a more complex stance on the plan. They don't want to lose out on sovereignty, as Elhayani is willing to, but are demanding that the map be altered. As local council leaders, the future unknowns are driving them crazy. A map they drew up themselves based on the principles of the Trump plan would lead, they think, to some settlements being cut off if and when a Palestinian state were ever established. They are also amazed as Netanyahu's unwillingness to listen to their insights, proposal, and ideas about the map – and they know the territory better than anyone. Even Ze'ev Haver, secretary of the Amana movement, who for years was welcome in the Prime Minister's Office, is being excluded.
Why Netanyahu has decided to keep players who are most affected by the Trump map at arm's distance is a mystery. What's more, many of these local council leaders are Likud members who took to the barricades on Netanyahu's behalf in the last three elections. The distance and the lack of answers from the prime minister about questions having to do with sovereignty left room for doubt to creep in. These doubts turned into concern, and the concern into active opposition.
In the past two weeks, Elhayani and his partners have been going from one MK to another, persuading the ones who supported the plan to think again. Jerusalem Affairs and Heritage Minister Rafi Peretz tweeted his reservations about some aspects of the plan. The Yamina party, which is not part of the coalition, didn't hesitate to attack Netanyahu from the Right. The prime minister left the stage. He gave two interviews – one to Israel Hayom, the other to Makor Rishon – but given the magnitude of the event, it was nothing.
Just what Trump needs
In effect, there are plenty of other aspects of the process to declare sovereignty that aren't being addressed. Israel isn't talking with the nations of the world about the step it plans to take, explaining it via the Foreign Ministry or the international media. Israeli ambassadors and supportive foreign diplomats are complaining that everyone has left the field. Arab countries are putting out angry declarations on a daily basis. Is anyone trying to placate them?
What about the fate of the half-million Israelis who live beyond the Green Line? If and when sovereignty is enacted, their lives can be expected to change, but no one is talking with them. The territory destined for sovereignty, the Jordan Valley and Judea and Samaria settlements, are currently under the responsibility of the Defense Ministry and the IDF. Will IDF soldiers be responsible for security there tomorrow? Who will replace them? Will the checkpoints set up on roads leading to settlements be dismantled? What about including apartments in the settlements in Israel's Land Registry? And there is more, much more.
The 2005 disengagement, or the Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and northern Samaria, entailed a year and a half of planning, the establishment of a special military command and a special civil administration. Even when implementing the reverse process, there should be a special headquarters to manage things in Israel and take care of the preparations to deal with regional and international issues. Director-General of the Prime Minister's Office Ronen Peretz, who is busy with the corona crisis and the economic crisis that resulted, as well as being a member of the Mapping Committee and directing other national matters, is only human. Netanyahu is entrusting him with many missions, but it's hard to imagine him overseeing a giant step like this on his own.
All these landmines on the way to sovereignty come as the Americans are facing troubles at home. At a time of coronavirus, an economic disaster, and violent protests across the country, US President Donald Trump has enough problems of his own. It's not certain he will want to take a risk on a gambit that will increase tensions in the Middle East.
In other words, if Israel wants sovereignty, it should submit it to the president fully prepared, clean and tidy and ready to go. All that won't happen by July 1.
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