Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah have been steadily growing for years, even more so against the backdrop of Iran's relentless attempts to entrench itself militarily in Syria. Still, actual flare-ups are few and relatively far between, indicating that the Iranian-backed terrorist group is playing a long game.
Logic says Hezbollah's attempts to target Israeli troops deployed along the border with Lebanon are part of its plan to exact a price from Israel over its strikes in Syria, which time and again raze Iranian infrastructure and hamper Tehran's plans to tighten its grip on the region.
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Iran has to retaliate, and what better way than to employ its regional proxy? But Hezbollah keeps failing and it's Iranian patrons probably do not take kindly to that. The question is, what are the Iranians really trying to achieve?
Their attempts over the last two years have really only managed to do one thing – keep the IDF on high alert. This constant state of hyper-vigilance can eventually wear out the troops and impeded the military's training routine.
This type of alert also demands considerable resources, which always comes at something's expense. Given the tensions simmering on the Israel-Gaza border as well, one can see that the immediate price Iran exacts from Israel is not in blood, rather in the attrition of Israel's security forces.
Similar dynamics were at play in the months that preceded the 2006 Second Lebanon War. Then, too, there were many failed attempts by Hezbollah to provoke hostilities, which were met by forceful IDF responses. Then, on July 12, 2006, the Shiite terrorist was able to abduct two Israeli soldiers, sparking the war.
Statistically speaking, one of the Iranian attempts to retaliate against Israel via Hezbollah is bound to eventually succeed. This will mandate an Israeli response and that, as everyone knows, is a slippery slope.
A closer look at Israel's response to these attacks by Hezbollah, doing the bidding of its Iranian masters, shows that Israel is ostensibly willing to "play the game" while clearly conveying – by carefully calculated fire – that it has no interest in escalation.
But here, too, one has to consider that even carefully calculated fire can miss and all it would take is one tiny miscalculation to trigger war.
This equation crafted by the Iranians, whereby for every attack on a Shiite operative in Syria Hezbollah in Lebanon will mount a reprisal, is an escalation in and of itself as it has changed the status quo that has prevailed on the northern border since the Second Lebanon War.
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As everyone knows, equations tend to balance themselves out, and a hit on one side mandates a response by the other side and so on, and so forth. Sounds familiar? Of course, because that is the dynamic vis-à-vis Hamas in Gaza.
So far, the IDF has been very clear in demonstrating that it will not tolerate the same situation in the northern sector that it maintains in the south. But there is no denying the dynamics on the two borders are becoming very similar.
Still, so far, and despite this slow escalation, both Hezbollah and the IDF have been able to keep a cool head and avoid rapid escalation. No is under any illusions, though – a major incident spelling war is only a matter of time.
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