The tug-of-war between the United States and Iran will likely continue until after the presidential election that will determine who will succeed President Hassan Rouhani. The latest clue is a statement by French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves le Drian.
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The minister said, "There is a tactical problem and also an internal problem in Iran. We are] in a particular situation, because we are quite close to the presidential elections, which take place in June." Le Drian did not specify the nature of the tactical problem.
However, he added that although there was a willingness to resume talks, tensions prevailed and there was an urgent need to ease the situation in order to move forward.
"We are sending signals to the Iranians so that we can have this return [to the nuclear deal]," he said. This "would be a prelude to a broader discussion beyond the JCPOA [nuclear deal] on regional destabilization, but also Iran's missile capabilities. " Drian added. "Going back to the JCPOA is only the starting point."
The words here seem to make sense. But the reality of things is a bit different. The ayatollahs have rejected a European offer to sit at the negotiating table with the United States to discuss the issue of returning to the nuclear deal. They are relying on psychological pressure because of successive estimates and intelligence reports warning that they are not far from a nuclear bomb.
According to some intelligence reports, the agreement is expected to be based on mutual concessions, which means no complete return to square one for either side.
This will be done in parallel steps so that, for example, the ayatollahs return to a partial commitment to their obligations in the nuclear deal in exchange for a partial reduction in US sanctions, and so on. In anticipation of this formula, the ayatollahs are now rushing to violate these obligations.
They hope to gain more for each backtracking on these increasing violations. This is causing concern in the West, with Iran announcing new measures in the near future.
In order to confuse the Western political and intelligence circles, which follow the Iranian scene very closely and surely understand the role-playing practiced by the ayatollahs, the Iranian regime has recently made its positions known through an "anonymous source. " Although, this method is quite out of the norm for the ayatollahs.
This source, said to be close to the Supreme National Security Council, recently took to an Iranian media outlet to threaten that if US sanctions are not lifted, Tehran will take stronger measures very soon. Any offer that is not in line with Tehran's policy will not be dealt with, the source said.
In addition, the United States cannot count on an offer that does not meet the conditions set by the Iranian leader Ali Khamenei. Meaning, the leader refuses in principle the proposal to return to the nuclear agreement on a "step for step" basis. It would appear as if there are signs of Iranian division over the US moves to return to the agreement.
Rouhani's administration is trying to push for lifting US sanctions before the Iranian presidential election in order to weaken the chances of hardliners winning the election. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif says the administration must intervene to revive the 2015 nuclear deal or it could find itself negotiating with a new Iranian government in a few months.
At the same time, we find such leaks that talk about the rejection of the diplomatic compromises proposed by the European side to get the two sides to meet halfway. My personal belief is that there is no real division on this issue in the top circles of the ayatollahs. The last word is for the leader. Rouhani or other officials cannot countermand his instructions in foreign policy matters.
But what is happening is the continued export of the idea of "good cop, bad cop" in Iranian politics, or reformists and hardliners, a notion that the ayatollahs have managed to sell to the world, and which they use to get the concessions they want. Rouhani cannot make any concessions at this time without the green light from the Supreme Leader.
They are simulating a split and conflicts to deceive the American side. The system fears a low voter turnout. The image that the regime gives to the world is based on the popular participation of Iranian voters.
The leader is not interested in who actually wins. No candidate can run without the approval of the Guardian Council. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's concern is to ensure participation in these elections despite the decline in voter turnout in recent elections due to the ever-growing levels of anti-regime sentiment among the various Iranian social classes.
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The question now is: Will anything really be new if a hard-line president comes to power in the ayatollahs' regime? The answer is that anything new will not come from Rouhani's successor, but from the leader himself. He is the one who determines policies at each stage and sets conditions and the ceiling.
Any difference is not about who comes and who goes, but about Khamenei's intentions and orientations.
Salem al-Ketbi is an Emirati political analyst and a former candidate to the UAE's Federal National Council.
