As 2021 comes to a close, the Israel Defense Forces has a number of successes to report. According to IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, "The increase in the scope of operations over the last year led to a significant disruption in all of the axes for introducing weapons into various arenas by our enemies."
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In an end-of-year report, the IDF noted an increase in its offensive activities in 2021, with over 1,000 operations carried out in various arenas. In Syria alone, the Israeli military carried out dozens of attacks as part of the IDF's campaign between the wars.
According to foreign reports, Israel was behind a large-scale attack on Syria's Latakia port overnight Monday that targeted a weapons shipment from Iran to either Syria or Hezbollah.
In addition to the increase in Israeli attacks, the IDF reported launches of surface-to-air missiles toward Israeli Air Force aircraft were also on the rise: In 2021, hundreds of such missiles were fired at Israeli aircraft and armaments compared to a significantly lower number launched in 2020 and 2019
Overall, the IDF reported satisfactory freedom of action in various arenas, as efforts to prevent the import of weapons to the Gaza Strip proved largely successful. Although also effective, efforts to reduce the number of weapons transferred to Syria are less successful, the IDF said. Over the last year, the IDF has prevented Iran from transferring weapons between 50% and 70% of the time, resulting in a decline in the number of advanced weapons inside Syria, according to IDF estimates.
The military, however, noted a disturbing trend in Lebanon, where the IDF's freedom of action had been diminished. The assessment is that the defense establishment will not remain silent on this issue.
The IDF attributes strategic importance to the signing of the Abraham Accords with Arab Gulf states, which include operational, defense, and intelligence cooperation between Israel and countries in the region and allow for future joint operations with Israel. The IDF noted that all of Israel's enemies are currently deterred, and are not interested in initiating a war with Israel at this time. When these enemies take action against Israel, it tends to be in response to an Israeli operation. Nevertheless, military officials have not ruled out the possibility Iran could respond to attacks attributed to Israel inside Syria, and point to Tehran having opted to attack US targets instead of directly Israeli ones in response to an attack attributed to Israel in October.
The IDF, meanwhile, has ramped up preparations for a possible attack on nuclear facilities inside Iran. The assessment is that from the moment Tehran makes the decision to build a bomb, it will need two years to acquire nuclear weapons. IDF officials believe Israel has the heavy munitions capable of penetrating the nuclear facility in Natanz in its arsenal. Planning for an attack on the uranium enrichment facility in Fordo, which is situated inside a mountain and would prove more complicated to take out, will be the IDF's greatest challenge, according to the report.
IDF officials believe Iran's nuclear facilities could have been attacked a decade ago and a strike at this time will prove more complicated as the Iranians have taken advantage of the last decade to equip themselves with multiple and more sophisticated air defense systems.
Kochavi has ordered the IDF to prepare several options for a strike on Iran.
As for Hezbollah, the IDF believes the Shiite terrorist organization has also been deterred and is not interested in war. According to the IDF, Hezbollah has thus far failed in its efforts to establish an industrial production line for the manufacturing of precision missiles on Lebanese soil, although it does have limited abilities to do so. The IDF has given special attention to efforts to thwart Hezbollah's precision-missile project through both Israeli airstrikes in Syria as well as strikes on kits to transform simple rockets into precision missiles that could threaten Israel.
On the Gaza front, the IDF reported progress between Israel and Hamas on negotiations toward a prisoner-exchange deal, although challenges remain as the terrorist organization has insisted terrorists with blood on their hands be included among those released as part of any future deal.
The military noted relatively few rockets – five – have been fired at Israel from the coastal enclave since May's Operation Guardian of the Walls. According to the IDF, this is due to both Jerusalem's policy of slowly allowing the territory to rebuild as well as threats that any attack on Israel would be met with a harsh response.
The IDF expressed concern over its inability to prevent rockets from being fired at Israel during the 11-day conflict when Gaza terrorists succeeded in overwhelming Israel's Iron Dome defense system and hitting civilian areas. According to the IDF, while the military has since improved its ability to locate and destroy rocket launch sites, a special team has nevertheless been established to develop technologies and tactics to contend with the threat.
As for Judea and Samaria, the IDF reported an increase in popular terrorism and lone-wolf attacks and a decrease in the number of Israelis killed – two in 2021 – this year. According to IDF data, shooting attacks increased from 31 to 61 between 2020 and 2021. Stabbing attacks were also up from nine to 18 in 2021. Rock-throwing rose 4% and fire bombings increased 33% over 2020, according to military data. The IDF also noted an increase in nationalist attacks on Palestinians, although the severity of those attacks is on the decline.
Military officials are concerned by recent polling indicating Israelis' trust in the IDF is on the decline. In response, Kochavi has established a team of military commanders and experts to learn what is behind this phenomenon. In a similar vein, Kochavi has made individual care for soldiers – in the fields of food, transportation, and medical care – a central objective for the military for 2022.
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