The international arena is changing. Anyone who needs convincing proof of this should take a good look at what is currently happening in Ukraine and the effects that the tension there is producing.
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Ukraine is undoubtedly the victim not only of Russian aggression but also of a weak international system, and especially of a Western world which has devoted itself to a strategy of procrastination and soft diplomacy when dealing with rebellious elements in the international system, especially when the latter strive to challenge existing reality.
The West's tactics when dealing with international politics stem from the desire to sustain its comfortable existence. The premise put forward when US President Barack Obama took office, by which shifts in international politics have turned the world into a dangerous, frantic, unstable and uncontrollable place, has become an ironclad principle of US and European foreign policy, rendering it cautions and lean.
This policy, which seeks to reduce friction, carefully manage risks and sanctify stability, does so even if it involves rewarding rogue international elements. Soft diplomacy is now the name of the game – but those who speak softly no longer carry big sticks, and this policy has become increasingly irrelevant vis-à-vis determined forces.
Russia is not the only active element in the current crisis and Ukraine is unlikely to be Wester diplomacy's only victim.
Even the vaguest of pundits has been finding it hard these days not to juxtapose Ukraine and Israel, as it is far too clear that Russia is emerging as the "Iran" of Eastern Europe, while Ukraine becomes none other than Israel.
This is not a mirror-image situation, not in terms of Russia and Iran's power nor in the circumstances of Ukraine and Israel. however, one has to look beyond the details - at the principle. And at that level, it is the exact same story.
Like Russia, Iran is determined to realize its strategic plans in the Middle East and become a regional power. It is determined, aggressive and it does not shy away from paying economic prices that in the West are very "significant" but in Moscow and Tehran, which represent less hedonistic cultures, are not as significant.
Like Russia, which is taking steps to redefine the strategic sphere in Europe, Iran is taking steps in this direction with regard to the Middle East. The current negotiations between the West and Iran mimic the negotiations between the West and Russia - at Ukraine's expense.
In this context, it is important to understand that all the steps taken by Russian President Vladimir Putin mean to serve these very negotiations, but for him, applying pressure and threatening war is a routine negotiating tactic.
Remember – this is not about war rather about butting heads with US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz – the same people heading the nuclear talks with Iran and are just as conciliatory toward the ayatollahs as they are toward the Kremlin.
In Iran's case, Israel will be made to pay the price for the West's weakness. In Russia's case, it will be Ukraine.
The West may seem sympathetic to Israel at this point but at the end of the day, Israel will be left to fend for itself – something that naturally has far-reaching implications.
The warning of sorts by a Ukrainian diplomat that Israel should be wary of staying neutral, in the way off "Ukraine today, tomorrow – Israel" cannot be dismissed.
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Israel's strategic solitude could cost it dearly, especially on the day after a military move in Iran – if it escalates into a prolonged war of attrition, which Israel could find very difficult to withstand. This is bad news to Israeli strategy, as despite marking significant achievements such as the Abraham Accords, it suffers from significant drawbacks.
Nevertheless, one can take comfort in the fact that Europe and the United States will most likely not criticize Israel when it comes to the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and the two-state solution – for the exact same reason – weakness.
No one, not even President Biden can force Israel to focus on the Palestinian issue – certainly not given how insignificant it is vis-à-vis the threat of a nuclear Iran.
