Control of the US Congress is on the line in Tuesday's midterm elections, which could dramatically shift the balance of power in Washington during the final two years of President Donald Trump's term. Republicans currently hold narrow majorities in both chambers, and Democrats need to gain four seats in each to take control. More than 54 million Americans have already cast their ballots, either through early voting or by mail.
Americans will be deciding far more than who controls Capitol Hill. In addition to all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 Senate seats, voters will elect 36 governors, 30 state attorneys general and more than 6,000 state legislators, alongside tens of thousands of local races and ballot measures.
Polls will begin opening on the East Coast at 6 a.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday (1 p.m. Israel time). The first will close at 6 p.m. Eastern (1 a.m. Wednesday in Israel), while the last, in Alaska, will not close until 1 a.m. Eastern on Wednesday (8 a.m. in Israel).
There is near-unanimous agreement about the likely outcome in the House: Every forecasting model predicts Democrats will take control. The Senate, however, is a different story.
According to Decision Desk HQ, Democrats have an 84% chance of winning the House and a 64% chance of taking the Senate. CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten gives them even better odds: 92% in the House and 71% in the Senate, where he projects a 52-48 Democratic majority. Fox News, which is generally sympathetic to the president, is more cautious, describing the Senate battle as a close contest that will be decided by seven key races.
Most of those contests are taking place in states Trump won by double-digit margins in 2024. In other words, Republicans are being forced to defend their own strongholds. According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll, just 32% of Americans approve of the president's performance. Even among rural voters, one of his most loyal constituencies, his approval rating has fallen to a record low of 45%.
Tariffs and the war in Iran have driven up gasoline and food prices. On the economy, an issue where Republicans enjoyed a clear advantage before the war, voters now trust Democrats more, by 37% to 33%.
Republicans are clinging to one major hope: that the polls are wrong again. According to Enten, Republican Senate candidates in states won by Trump outperformed their polling averages by 4.1 percentage points between 2018 and 2024. If that happens again, Republicans could hold the Senate and perhaps even win Michigan. Another possible lifeline is Trump's promise of a $5,000 "dividend" for every adult American if Republicans retain control of both chambers of Congress.
A Democratic blue wave would give the opposition the power to block legislation, cut funding for the president's priorities and, perhaps most significantly, summon senior administration officials for contentious congressional hearings that would dominate television news coverage. If Democrats also capture the Senate, they could block Trump's appointments, including nominees to the Supreme Court.
Trump himself has warned that Democrats would seek to remove him from office. But even if they launch impeachment proceedings, they would have little realistic chance of completing the process: Conviction in the Senate requires a two-thirds majority.
Trump wrapped up his campaign rally tour Sunday in two states he once won comfortably but which have now become battlegrounds. He delivered a two-hour speech in Dubuque, Iowa, before heading to Salina, Kansas. He is scheduled to deliver his final campaign address Monday near the Reflecting Pool at the foot of the Lincoln Memorial in Washington.
Michigan
From Israel's perspective, Michigan is arguably the most consequential race, not least because Israel itself has become a central issue in the campaign.
In the Democratic corner is Abdul El-Sayed, who would become the first Muslim US senator if elected. He accuses Israel of genocide, calls for a complete halt to US military assistance to the country and does not recognize its right to exist as a Jewish state.
His Republican opponent is Mike Rogers, the former chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, who lost his 2024 Senate race by fewer than 20,000 votes.
But there is a third figure in this contest, even though her name is not on the ballot: Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed by roughly one percentage point. El-Sayed's campaign attacked Stevens throughout their primary battle, portraying her as the candidate of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the influential pro-Israel lobbying organization.
The rift erupted into the open over the weekend when Stevens demanded that El-Sayed condemn an advertisement linking US aid to Israel to rising food prices. Although El-Sayed distanced himself from the ad, his campaign went further, publicly humiliating Stevens in a statement rejecting her support. On Sunday, Stevens appeared alongside Rogers and announced that she was endorsing her former Republican rival, a dramatic move that will likely end her political career.
Even so, most polls suggest El-Sayed will win, leaving Israel facing a hostile voice in the Senate for the next six years.
Trump: "You have Mohammed, Mohammed, Mohammed, Mohammed, Mohammed. Everybody is basically. If you're in doubt about somebody's name from the Middle East, just say 'Mohammed.' You have about a 65% chance." https://t.co/TTM3bNfBrz
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 16, 2026
Rogers is a deeply problematic candidate, to put it mildly. Until two years ago, he was registered to vote in Florida. After losing in 2024, he claimed without evidence that the election had been stolen from him. He also carries Trump's endorsement in a state where only 41% of voters approve of the president's performance.
The latest New York Times/Siena poll gives El-Sayed an 11-point lead, 53% to 42%. Other surveys offer Rogers more encouragement, showing gaps of between two and seven points. But Michigan's polls have been wrong before. Ahead of the Democratic primary, they projected a double-digit lead for El-Sayed. He ultimately won by just one point.
Texas
While Democrats in Michigan are trying to win from the party's progressive left, James Talarico, a member of the Texas House of Representatives, is pursuing a more centrist strategy in Texas. To some extent, the two races reflect a struggle for the soul of the Democratic Party and the direction it will take heading into the 2028 presidential election.
Talarico, 37, is a former teacher who is now studying Christian theology. He frequently discusses his faith and has moderated his positions on transgender issues and energy policy during the campaign.
Facing him is a scandal-plagued politician and staunch supporter of Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement: Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. In 2023, the Texas House voted to impeach Paxton on corruption-related charges, but the state Senate acquitted him. In May, with Trump's backing, Paxton defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary. His personal life has also generated headlines. Last year, his wife, a state senator, filed for divorce "on biblical grounds," accusing him of adultery.
If Trump's preferred candidate loses in a state the president carried by nearly 14 percentage points, it will be far more than a warning sign for the Republican Party. No Democrat has won a statewide election in Texas since 1994, and Republicans have already spent more than $300 million on advertising to support Paxton, three times as much as Democrats.
A New York Times/Siena poll gives Talarico a seven-point lead. Other surveys show a tighter contest, however, with two even placing Paxton narrowly ahead.
South Carolina
Four months ago, virtually nobody would have imagined South Carolina appearing on a list of competitive Senate races. The state has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1998, and veteran Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham appeared to be cruising toward a fifth term.
But Graham died suddenly in July, and the Republican governor appointed his sister, Darlene Graham, to replace him. She had previously headed the state's agency for the blind and had no political experience. Trump encouraged her to seek a full term, but her lack of experience quickly became apparent. Asked about Taiwan during a debate, she admitted, "National security is not my thing, not my area of expertise."
It was precisely in that field that her brother had made his name. Lindsey Graham was one of Washington's most prominent foreign policy hawks and had met with leaders around the world. Despite her difficulties, Darlene Graham won the Republican primary with Trump's backing.
The polls now show a surprisingly competitive race. A New York Times/Siena survey found Graham tied at 48% with her Democratic opponent, pediatrician Annie Andrews. The Cook Political Report shifted its rating from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican." While Graham still leads by three to four points in most other surveys, Republicans are taking no chances. They have poured millions of dollars into the contest, and Trump has visited the state twice in two weeks to campaign for her.
Iowa
If there is one race where the war in Iran could determine control of the Senate, it may be Iowa. In this heavily agricultural state, which Trump carried by 13 percentage points in 2024, farmers are paying a steep price. Diesel prices are approaching record highs, while Trump's tariffs have hurt soybean exports, particularly to China.
Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring, leaving an open seat. The Republican candidate is Rep. Ashley Hinson, backed by Trump. Her Democratic opponent is Josh Turek, an Iowa state legislator and two-time Paralympic gold medalist.
Turek has attacked the administration over the war and tariffs, pointing out that Hinson voted in September against restricting Trump's war powers. But pressure from voters has taken its toll, and Hinson herself has been forced to publicly call for an "immediate and successful end" to the war.
Patience is wearing thin even among Trump voters. "He lied to us," one woman who voted for Trump in 2024 told The Associated Press.
Nevertheless, Iowa remains one of the closest races in the country. The latest polls show a virtual tie, with either Turek or Hinson holding leads within the statistical margin of error.
Alaska
In Alaska, the Senate race turned into a legal drama before a single vote was counted. The Republican candidate is incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan. His Democratic opponent is former Rep. Mary Peltola. But a third candidate is also on the ballot: a retired teacher named ... Dan Sullivan.
According to The New York Times, members of Peltola's campaign worked to recruit candidates who could split the senator's vote, and her former campaign manager told the newspaper she knew about the effort.
Peltola denies the allegation. "I knew nothing about any other candidates on the ballot except for me and the incumbent," she said, while Trump called the affair "voter fraud at the highest level" and demanded that Peltola be prosecuted.
The Justice Department opened a criminal investigation and filed a lawsuit seeking to block certification of the election results if Sullivan lost by a narrow margin. On Sunday, however, a federal judge rejected the lawsuit, and the Justice Department announced that it would appeal.
Peltola nevertheless holds a narrow lead in the polls, despite Trump's 13-point victory in Alaska in 2024. However, don't expect a result on election night. Alaska continues accepting eligible mail-in ballots for up to two weeks after Election Day, and only then is its ranked-choice voting system applied to determine the winner.
Other close races
Maine: Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican running for the Senate this year in a state Trump lost in 2024. Graham Platner, who won the Democratic primary, was forced to withdraw following allegations of sexual assault, which he denies. He was replaced by Troy Jackson, a logger and former president of the Maine Senate. During a debate, Jackson told Collins, "Oh, shut up," after she suggested that a protester interrupting the event was one of his supporters. He later said he did not regret the remark.
A New York Times/Siena poll gives Jackson a six-point lead.
Ohio: Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his seat in 2024, is attempting a comeback against Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace JD Vance. The contest made headlines largely because of Trump's compliments about Husted's backside, but it is also one of the most expensive races in the country. Spending by outside groups is approaching $400 million.
A Siena poll gives Brown a six-point advantage, although most other surveys show a smaller gap, and one has the candidates tied.
Kansas: In a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932, the Rev. Adam Hamilton, who leads the largest Methodist church in the US, is mounting a serious challenge to Republican Sen. Roger Marshall.
Hamilton leads in all the latest polls, and the race is considered highly competitive.
